[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 October 12 issued 2331 UT on 16 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 17 10:31:23 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct: 137/91
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low, with C-class flares from AR1591,
AR1593 and AR1589, the largest of which was C3 from AR1589. AR1591
(N08, E21) is the largest spot group at 230 millionths of disc.
Expect mostly C-class flares, with a low chance of M-class flares.
There are two filaments on the disc, one oriented N-S just north of AR1590
near central meridian, the other SW of AR 1586 in the SW quadrant.
Both filaments appear stable at present but have CME potential if they
collapse. The solar wind speed declined steadily over the UT day from 580km/s
to 330km/sec as the Earth passed out of a coronal hole wind stream.
Another coronal hole (CH541) is approaching the geoeffective
longitude but is longitudinally narrow so an enhance solar wind
speed could occur 17 or 18th Oct but for less than a day. The
IMF remained stable over the period, with no extended southward
periods.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Darwin 4 22201211
Townsville 7 2222222-
Learmonth 5 2221121-
Norfolk Island 3 11111111
Camden 3 11112111
Canberra 3 1111211-
Hobart 3 11122101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 1132320-
Mawson 11 2342222-
Davis 21 2353----
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 3222 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
18 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet to Unsettled 16-Oct,
with some isolated Active periods at high latitudes, the residual
effects of recent geomagnetic activity. Expect mostly Quiet conditions
for the next three days with possibly some Unsettled periods
over 17-18th Oct as a narrow coronal hole rotates into geoeffective
position on the solar disc and a short period of higher solar
wind speed may result. A solar sector boundary is expected to
rotate across Earth late on 19th Oct UT day with some geomagnetic
disturbances.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal-poor
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-poor
19 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Oct 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs recovered to near predicted monthly values as the
ionosphere recovered from a series of small geomagnetic storms
earlier in the week, assisted by EUV flux from numerous spot
groups now on the solar disc. Minor MUF depressions may occur
17-Oct as Earth may pass through a narrow high speed solar wind
speed stream from a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective longitude
on the solar disc, causing geomagnetic disturbances.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:18%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 455 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 71000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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