[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 October 12 issued 2335 UT on 17 Oct 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 18 10:35:49 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 OCTOBER - 20 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 135/89


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Oct             19 Oct             20 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low, with C-class flares from AR1589 
and a new region rotating onto the eastern limb. There are 8 
active regions on the disc, the most active being the new region. 
Substantial EUV flux is being produced for ionising the ionosphere. 
AR1591 (N08, E08) is the largest spot group. Expect mostly C-class 
flares, with a <10% chance of M-class flares across the disc, 
possibly from the new region, AR1591 or AR15989. The solar wind 
speed rose quickly from 350km/s to ~500km/sec early in the UT 
day as the high-speed solar wind stream from coronal hole CH541 
took effect. Vsw dropped to ~400km/s late in the UT day, as CH541 
has a dual structure, and subsequently returned to 500km/sec 
by 23UT. As CH541 is longitudinally narrow it is not expected 
Vsw will remain elevated for long on 18th Oct. The Interplanetary 
Magnetic Field remained stable, oscillating in +/-5nT range, 
over the period, with no extended southward periods. A solar 
sector boundary is due to rotate across Earth late in the UT 
day on the 9th, possibly associated with coronal hole CH542.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22212112
      Darwin               7   32212113
      Townsville           7   32212222
      Learmonth            6   32212112
      Norfolk Island       3   21101112
      Camden               5   21212112
      Canberra             4   21202102
      Hobart               4   22202102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     6   23302101
      Mawson               7   ------22
      Davis               11   33333212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Oct : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             4   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1121 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Oct     5    Quiet
20 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 17-Oct, with some isolated 
Unsettled periods due to elevated solar wind speed from coronal 
hole CH541. The high speed stream should rotate past Earth early 
in the UT day 18th Oct. A solar sector boundary is expected to 
rotate across Earth late on 19th Oct UT day with some geomagnetic 
disturbances.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Oct   105

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Oct   100    0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Oct   100    0 to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Oct   100    0 to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were enhanced above predicted monthly values due 
to enhanced EUV flux from 8 spot groups now on the solar disc 
with most likely to remain for the next 3 days. High MUF variability 
at low latitudes over 17-Oct may have been due to geomagnetic 
activity caused by a high speed solar wind speed stream from 
a coronal hole, expected to pass early 18th Oct.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Oct
Speed: 373 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    42100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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