[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 October 12 issued 2331 UT on 14 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 15 10:31:11 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 OCTOBER - 17 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Oct: 132/86
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Oct 16 Oct 17 Oct
Activity Moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 140/94
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 14-Oct, with the largest flare
a C4.8 associated with a filament eruption from behind the North-East
limb. The CME associated with the filament eruption is not expected
to be geoeffective. Region 1589 (N13E08) remains the most complex
region on the disc (beta-gamma-delta mag class), and has the
potential to produce isolated M/X class flares. The Earth remains
under the influence of a coronal hole wind stream with elevated,
but steadily declining solar wind speed, currently near 500km/s.
The IMF is currently stable and fluctuating between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Oct: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 14 Oct : A K
Australian Region 15 32344133
Darwin 14 32334133
Townsville 16 32344233
Learmonth 20 32255233
Norfolk Island 10 32333122
Camden 15 33334133
Canberra 11 32333132
Hobart 16 33344133
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Oct :
Macquarie Island 27 44356222
Casey - --------
Mawson 38 44354266
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Oct :
Darwin 12 (Quiet)
Townsville 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 5 (Quiet)
Gnangara 98 (Minor storm)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 28
Planetary 52 3565 6653
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct 5 Quiet
17 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled 14-Oct under
the influence of a high speed solar wind stream. An isolated
Active period was observed 09-12UT, with Active to Minor Storm
conditions at high latitudes. Expect mostly Quiet to Unsettled
conditions 15 Oct, with isolated Active periods possible as the
high speed solar wind stream wanes.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
16 Oct Normal Normal Normal
17 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Oct 40
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Oct 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
16 Oct 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
17 Oct 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 35 was issued on 14 October
and is current for 15-16 Oct. MUF depressions of up to 30% during
the local day were observed across the Australian region 14-Oct,
as the ionosphere continues to recover from a series of small
geomagnetic storms. Ongoing moderate MUF depressions and some
degraded HF conditions are expected 15-Oct, predominantly during
local day time, with a gradual strengthening of the ionosphere
over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Oct
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 0.3 p/cc Temp: 139000 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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