[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 October 12 issued 2335 UT on 13 Oct 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 14 10:35:12 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 OCTOBER - 16 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Oct: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Oct             15 Oct             16 Oct
Activity     Moderate           Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low 13-Oct. Region 1589 (N13E19) 
remains the most complex region on the disc (beta-gamma mag class), 
and has the potential to produce isolated M/X class flares. The 
Earth moved into a corotating interaction region ahead of a coronal 
hole wind stream late on 12-Oct. The magnetic field within the 
CIR had a predominantly southward orientation resulting an extended 
IMF Bz southwards for more than 12 hours from 12/2100UT to 13/1000UT. 
Solar wind speed increased following the passage of the CIR and 
remains near 600km/s.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Oct: Quiet to Minor Storm

Estimated Indices 13 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      24   23455432
      Darwin              17   23344432
      Townsville          18   23344433
      Learmonth           25   23355532
      Norfolk Island      19   22445332
      Camden              24   23455432
      Canberra            24   23455432
      Hobart              39   23566542    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    78   15687642
      Casey                -   --------
      Mawson              83   67555766

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Oct : 
      Darwin              19   (Quiet)
      Townsville           8   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs       12   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            25   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            20   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        25
           Planetary             36                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             14   3432 3232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Oct    12    Unsettled
15 Oct     8    Quiet to Unsettled
16 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 17 was issued on 13 October 
and is current for 13-14 Oct. The geomagnetic field was Quiet 
to Unsettled until ~06UT, after which a sustained period of southwards 
IMF associated with a co-rotating interaction region resulted 
in Active to Minor Storm conditions at mid latitudes, with Major 
Storm conditions at high latitudes. Elevated geomagnetic activity 
persisted through to ~18UT, decreasing to mostly Unsettled for 
the remainder of the day. Expect ongoing Unsettled conditions 
14-Oct, with isolated Active periods predominantly at high latitudes, 
as a result of a coronal hole wind stream. Mostly Quiet conditions 
should return 15-Oct.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Oct      Normal         Fair           Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Oct      Normal         Normal         Fair
15 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
16 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
13 Oct    56

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Oct    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
15 Oct    65    Near predicted monthly values
16 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 34 was issued on 12 October 
and is current for 13-14 Oct. HF conditions were variable over 
the UT day, with mostly normal conditions prior to 06UT, after 
which degraded HF conditions were observed in response to elevated 
geomagnetic activity, primarily in the S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions. 
MUFs were mostly near predicted months values in N.Aus, and up 
to 30% depressed during the local day in S.Aus/NZ. Ongoing minor 
MUF depressions and moderate degradation of HF conditions are 
expected 14-Oct, predominantly in the S.Aus/NZ regions during 
local day time.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.80E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:23%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Oct
Speed: 505 km/sec  Density:    0.1 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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