[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 October 12 issued 2324 UT on 11 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 12 10:24:28 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 OCTOBER - 14 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Oct: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Oct 13 Oct 14 Oct
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class flares
were observed. Today's largest flare was a C4.6(0806UT) from
region 1589(N12E49). Region 1589 is the most complex region on
the disk. New region 1590 (S29E59) rotated on to the visible
disk today. Solar wind speed remained elevated around 500 km/s
today. The Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT almost
the whole day today. Low levels of solar activity with some
possibility of isolated M-class flare may be expected for the
next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Darwin 4 21112102
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 22122211
Norfolk Island 3 11111112
Camden 3 11112101
Canberra 3 11112101
Hobart 3 11112101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 11123201
Casey - --------
Mawson 16 34233324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Oct :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 9 3222 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Oct 5 Quiet
13 Oct 5 Quiet
14 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today. Nearly similar level of activity may be expected for
the next two days with some possibility of enhancements to
unsettled with isolated active periods on the third day due
to the effect of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal
hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
14 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Minor to moderated MUF depressions were observed
on most locations today (11 October). Mostly normal HF
conditions may be expected for the next 2 days. Minor to
moderate degradations in HF conditions may be possible on
the third day due to expected enhancements in geomagnetic
activity levels on the third day.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Oct 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Oct 40 Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct 45 Near predicted monthly values
14 Oct 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
15%
COMMENT: Significant MUF depressions continued across all
S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic sites 11-Oct, as the ionosphere slowly
recovers from a period of sustained geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next
2 days. Minor to moderate degradations in HF conditions may
be observed on the third day due to an expected rise in
geomagnetic activity levels on the third day.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Oct
Speed: 504 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 134000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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