[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 October 12 issued 2333 UT on 10 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 11 10:33:55 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1/-- 09/2331UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Oct 12 Oct 13 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low Low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate 10-Oct, with two low M-class
flares from an unnumbered active region on the east limb (S29E86).
Neither were associated with a significant CME. This region appears
to have eruptive potential, although until it rotates further
onto the visible disk it is difficult to accurately determine
its flare potential. Previous activity suggests there is a chance
of further M-class flares. The Earth remained under the influence
of a coronal hole wind stream for most of 10-Oct, with elevated,
but steadily declining, solar wind speed. Expect mostly quiet
solar wind/IMF conditions 11-Oct.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A K
Australian Region 10 22232332
Darwin 10 32222332
Townsville 12 33232332
Learmonth 12 33122432
Norfolk Island 6 22222221
Camden 10 22233331
Canberra 10 22133331
Hobart 11 22233332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
Macquarie Island 19 32255322
Mawson 63 34332785
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 42 (Unsettled)
Canberra 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 32
Planetary 50 7664 1235
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Oct 8 Quiet to Unsettled
12 Oct 5 Quiet
13 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Unsettled 10-Oct, under the
combined influence of the tail end of an ICME and a high speed
solar wind stream. Expect mostly Quiet conditions 10-12 Oct.
Some isolated Active periods expected at high latitudes 11-Oct.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Oct Normal Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair-poor
12 Oct Normal Normal Normal
13 Oct Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Oct 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 40% during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Oct 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
12 Oct 45 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
13 Oct 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 33 was issued on 9 October
and is current for 10-11 Oct. Significant MUF depressions continued
across all S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic sites 10-Oct, as the ionosphere
slowly recovers from a period of sustained geomagnetic activity.
N.Aus/equatorial sites were depressed overnight, but near expected
values during the day. Expect continuing moderate-strong MUF
depressions 11-12 Oct, particularly at S.Aus/NZ locations, as
the ionosphere gradually returns to pre-storm support.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 408 km/sec Density: 0.9 p/cc Temp: 61800 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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