[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 October 12 issued 2332 UT on 07 Oct 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 8 10:32:48 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 OCTOBER - 10 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Oct:  98/45


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Oct             09 Oct             10 Oct
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              95/41              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low 07-Oct. A filament eruption from 
the southern hemisphere produced a south-westward directed CME 
visible in SOHO LASCO C2 imagery at 0824UT. STEREO Ahead/Behind 
imagery of the CME shows the event to be strongly southwards-directed, 
with only a small Earth-directed component. WSA-Enlil modelling 
indicates a weak Earthward-directed component, expected to arrive 
11-Oct. Solar activity is expected to continue at Very Low levels 
next three days with isolated C-class flares possible. The solar 
wind speed remains slow and the IMF relatively stable. ACE EPAM 
data indicates an energetic ion enhancement event beginning 07/1050UT, 
which is likely a precursor to the arrival of the CME from 05-Oct. 
Expect elevated solar wind speeds and disturbed IMF conditions 
08-09 Oct.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11121011
      Darwin               3   11111012
      Townsville           5   12221122
      Learmonth            4   11121121
      Norfolk Island       2   21020011
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             1   11010000
      Hobart               2   12020001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   11030000
      Casey                8   33321121
      Mawson              12   33211144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7   2112 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Oct    20    Unsettled to Active
09 Oct    25    Active to Minor Storm
10 Oct    12    Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 6 October and 
is current for 8-9 Oct. The geomagnetic field was Quiet 07-Oct. 
Quiet conditions are expected over the first half of 08-Oct before 
the arrival of a CME late 08-Oct or early 09-Oct, which is expected 
to increase geomagnetic activity to Active to Minor Storm levels. 
Minor Storm conditions expected at high latitudes 09-Oct. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to return to mostly Unsettled conditions 
10-Oct, with isolated Active periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair-poor
09 Oct      Fair           Fair           Poor
10 Oct      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Oct    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Oct    70    Near predicted monthly values
09 Oct    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Oct    60    Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 32 was issued on 6 October 
and is current for 8-9 Oct. Normal HF conditions were observed 
07-Oct, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly values. Expect 
normal HF conditions over the first half of 08-Oct, with some 
degraded conditions late in the UT day and into 09-Oct. Minor 
to moderate MUF depressions are likely 09-10 Oct as a result 
of increased geomagnetic activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Oct
Speed: 333 km/sec  Density:    1.9 p/cc  Temp:    36100 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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