[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 October 12 issued 2340 UT on 06 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 7 10:40:35 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 OCTOBER - 09 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Oct: 99/46
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Oct 08 Oct 09 Oct
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 98/45 98/45 95/41
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. A few B-class
flares were observed mainly from region 1585(S20E12). The
partial halo CME, that was observed on 5 October, may
strengthen the solar wind stream late on 8 October or in
the first half of 9 October. Solar wind speed varied between
300 and 350 km/s for most parts of the UT day today. The Bz
component of IMF mostly varied between +/-5 nT during this time,
staying southwards for relatively longer periods of time.
Very Low to Low levels of solar activity may be expected for
the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11122121
Darwin 4 21122111
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 6 22222221
Norfolk Island 4 10122121
Camden 4 11122121
Canberra 3 00122111
Hobart 4 11122211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Oct :
Macquarie Island 8 11134310
Casey 12 34422112
Mawson 16 33213335
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4 0001 1222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Oct 4 Quiet
08 Oct 12 Unsettled to Active
09 Oct 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed at quiet levels today.
Nearly similar levels of activity may be expected on 7 October
and the first half of 8 October. Geomagnetic activity may
be expected to rise to unsettled to active levels with some
possibility of minor storm periods during the second half
of 8 October and also on 9 October. This rise in activity
is expected due to an earthward directed CME that is expected
to arrive late on 8 October or early on 9 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Oct Normal Normal Normal
08 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
09 Oct Normal-fair Fair Poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be
expected in this region on 7 October and the first half of
8 October. Minor to moderate degradations are possible late
on 8 October and also on 9 October due to an expected rise
in geomagnetic activity levels through this period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Oct 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Oct 85 Near predicted monthly values
08 Oct 80 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
09 Oct 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 5 to
20%
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed on most
locations today. Nearly similar HF conditions may be expected
on 7 October and through the first half of 8 October. Minor
to moderate MUF depressions may be possible late on 8 October
and also on 9 October due to an expected rise in geomagnetic
activity levels during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Oct
Speed: 316 km/sec Density: 1.0 p/cc Temp: 41400 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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