[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 October 12 issued 2349 UT on 02 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 3 09:49:28 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 OCTOBER - 05 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Oct: 118/70
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Oct 04 Oct 05 Oct
Activity Very Low to Low Very Low to Low Very Low to Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. One C1 flare was
observed from region 1584(S22W01). The CME effect has now
diminished. Solar wind speed stayed around 350 km/s during
the UT day today. The Bz component of IMF varied between
+/-7 nT for most parts of this day, staying northwards for
relatively longer periods of time. Very Low to Low levels
of solar activity may be expected for the next three days
(3 to 5 October).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Oct: Mostly Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 21022221
Darwin 7 31022321
Townsville 8 32122322
Learmonth 8 31122322
Norfolk Island 5 31021211
Camden 5 21022221
Canberra 5 21022221
Hobart 4 11022221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Oct :
Macquarie Island 7 10044100
Casey 10 33232311
Mawson 6 32022212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Oct :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 36 7733 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Oct 4 Quiet
04 Oct 4 Quiet
05 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today. Nearly similar conditions may be expected for the next
3 days (3 to 5 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions with the
possibility of minor to moderate MUF enhancements may be
expected in this region for the next 3 days (3 to 5 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Oct 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
04 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
05 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some periods of
MUF enhancements were observed on low and mid latitudes today.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next
3 days (3 to 5 October) with the possibility of minor to
mild MUF enhancements.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.6
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Oct
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 77000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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