[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 October 12 issued 2342 UT on 03 Oct 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 4 09:42:23 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 OCTOBER - 06 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Oct: 113/64
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Oct 05 Oct 06 Oct
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. Only a few
B class flares were observed. Solar wind speed stayed
around 320 km/s for most parts of the UT day today. The
Bz component of IMF varied between +/-5 nT during this time.
Very Low to Low levels of solar activity may be expected
for the next three days (4 to 6 October).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Oct: Mostly Quiet with
some Unsettled periods
Estimated Indices 03 Oct : A K
Australian Region 5 32210111
Darwin 5 32211102
Townsville 6 3221112-
Learmonth 7 42211210
Norfolk Island 4 32100012
Camden 4 32210001
Canberra 3 32110000
Hobart 4 32210001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Oct :
Macquarie Island 2 31010000
Casey 9 43321110
Mawson 6 43111010
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2002 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Oct 4 Quiet
05 Oct 4 Quiet
06 Oct 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity stayed mostly at quiet levels
today with some unsettled periods. Quiet conditions may be
expected for the next 3 days (4 to 6 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Oct Normal Normal Normal
05 Oct Normal Normal Normal
06 Oct Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across
Aus/NZ regions today. Nearly similar HF conditions with the
possibility of minor to moderate MUF enhancements may be
expected in this region for the next 3 days (4 to 6 October).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Oct 91
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for October: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
05 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
06 Oct 100 5 to 20% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some periods of
MUF enhancements were observed on low and mid latitudes today.
Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the next 3
days (4 to 6 October) with the possibility of minor to mild
MUF enhancements.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Oct
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 1.2 p/cc Temp: 52500 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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