[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 October 12 issued 2352 UT on 01 Oct 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 2 09:52:34 EST 2012 

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 OCTOBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 OCTOBER - 04 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 128/81


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             02 Oct             03 Oct             04 Oct
Activity     Low                Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             125/78

COMMENT: Solar activity was low today. Several C-class flares 
were produced by region 1575 today. This region has now gone 
around the limb. Due to the previously observed CME activity, 
a shock was observed in the solar wind by ACE at 2221 UT/30 September 
with a 35nT sudden impulse. This raised the solar wind speed 
to around 400 km/s and the Bz component of IMF also went negative 
to nearly -20 nT. The effect of CME activity now seems to have 
nearly subsided as the solar wind speed has declined to 320 km/s. 
The Bz component of IMF gradually changed from -18 nT to a positve 
value around 0400UT today and then stayed positive up to +10nT 
during the rest of the day. Low levels of solar activity may 
be expected on 2 October. Solar activity may further delcine 
to very low to low levels on 3 and 4 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Oct: Quiet to Active with 
some Minor Storm periods. Isolated major storm periods observed at 
high latitudes.

Estimated Indices 01 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   43322112
      Darwin              10   43222113
      Townsville          12   43322223
      Learmonth           14   53222223
      Norfolk Island      10   43321121
      Camden              10   43322112
      Canberra            10   43322112
      Hobart              11   44322102    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Oct :
      Macquarie Island    16   55331001
      Casey               13   44422111
      Mawson              26   66323212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Oct : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           2   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             31                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             13   1102 3434     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
02 Oct     7    Quiet to Unsettled
03 Oct     4    Quiet
04 Oct     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity increased to minor storm 
levels today due to the impact of a CME. Isolated major 
storm periods were also observed at some high latitude 
locations. The CME effect has now weakened significantly. 
Quiet to unsettled conditions on 2 October and mostly 
quiet conditions on 3 and 4 October may be expected.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed across Aus/NZ 
regions today. Mostly normal HF conditions with the possibility 
of minor to moderate MUF enhancements may be expected in this 
region for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
01 Oct   109

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for October:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
02 Oct   115    Near predicted monthly values
03 Oct   125    5 to 25% above predicted monthly values
04 Oct   125    5 to 25% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions with some periods of 
MUF enhancements were observed on low and mid latitudes today. 
Some periods of MUF depressions were also observed at high 
latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for 
the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  7.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Sep
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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