[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 November 12 issued 2314 UT on 18 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 19 10:14:13 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 NOVEMBER - 21 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Nov: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Nov 20 Nov 21 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 140/94 140/94 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
flare was a C5.7 class X-ray flare which occurred at 18/0407UT
from active region 1615(N08W34). Active regions 1618(N09E37),
1619(N10E03) and 1613(S24W32) also produced C-class flares during
this period. Expect Low activity over the UT day, 19 November
with a slight chance of an M-class flare. ACE spacecraft observed
a solar wind speed ranging from 450-390km/s over the last 24
hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +/-4nT during
this period. Expect the solar wind to remain between 450 to 350km/s
over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 12112111
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 6 22122221
Learmonth 5 22112212
Alice Springs 4 22112102
Norfolk Island 2 11111101
Culgoora 2 11111100
Gnangara 5 12112212
Camden 4 12212111
Canberra 3 11211101
Hobart 4 1121----
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 12221000
Casey 14 35332212
Mawson 8 33222212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2211 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Nov 7 Quiet
20 Nov 7 Quiet
21 Nov 4 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Mostly Quiet levels over
the Australian and Antarctic regions during the last 24 hours.
Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain Mostly Quiet for the
next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Nov 125
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
21 Nov 110 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the
next three days, 19-21 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Nov
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 5.1 p/cc Temp: 36700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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