[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 November 12 issued 2325 UT on 17 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 18 10:25:13 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 NOVEMBER - 20 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Nov: 135/89
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Nov 19 Nov 20 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
flare was a C2 class X-ray flare which occurred at 17/1810UT
from active region 1615(N07W20). Active regions 1618(N09E58)
and 1613(S23W19) also produced C-class flares during this period.
Expect Low activity over the UT day, 18 November with a slight
chance of an M-class flare. ACE spacecraft observed a solar wind
speed ranging from 390-440km/s over the last 24 hours. The Bz
component of the IMF ranged between +/-4nT during this period.
Expect the solar wind to remain between 450 to 350km/s over the
next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 17 Nov : A K
Australian Region 8 22233221
Darwin 11 32233232
Townsville 10 23233231
Learmonth 11 22233332
Alice Springs 9 22233222
Norfolk Island 9 22233231
Culgoora 8 22233221
Gnangara 9 22232232
Camden 8 22233221
Canberra 8 12233221
Hobart 7 1223320-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Nov :
Macquarie Island 5 12113220
Casey 18 45432222
Mawson 20 34223354
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1101 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
19 Nov 7 Quiet
20 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at Quiet to Unsettled levels
over the Australian region during the last 24 hours with Quiet
to Minor Storm levels in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to remain Mostly Quiet for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Nov 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
19 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
20 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were at near predicted monthly values or enhanced
during the last 24 hours. Expect this trend to continue for the
next three days, 18-20 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.00E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Nov
Speed: 413 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 59800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list