[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 November 12 issued 2330 UT on 19 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 20 10:30:28 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 NOVEMBER - 22 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Nov: 134/88
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Nov 21 Nov 22 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 135/89 135/89
COMMENT: A CME associated with a filament lift off was observed
in LASCO/SDO/STEREO images 18 Nov/~2030 UT originating from the
south-east limb; it is not expected to be geo-effective. A few
C-class flares, the largest a C7.0 at 0228 UT from growing beta-gamma
region 1618 (N07 E28). New, simple region located at S13 E73.
ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed with speed
ranging between 350 and 450 km/s. Region 1618 may produce M-class
flares. The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed over
the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 19 Nov : A K
Australian Region 5 21212211
Darwin 6 22222212
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 6 21123211
Alice Springs 4 21112201
Norfolk Island 4 21112211
Culgoora 3 1011221-
Gnangara 6 21123211
Camden 4 11212211
Canberra 4 11212210
Hobart 4 21212200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Nov :
Macquarie Island 6 11223300
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 11 32222324
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1211 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Nov 5 Quiet
21 Nov 5 Quiet
22 Nov 7 Quiet
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Nov Normal Normal Normal
21 Nov Normal Normal Normal
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Nov 133
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values 00-05 UT. No data 13-20 UT. Enhanced
15-40% at other times.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced 20-45% 00-16, 23 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced 20-35% 10-19 UT. Near predicted monthly values at other
times.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced during local day.
Enhanced to 25% during local night. Near predicted monthly values
after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
21 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
22 Nov 120 Near predicted monthly values to 25% enhanced.
COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts over the forecast period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.2
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Nov
Speed: 402 km/sec Density: 1.8 p/cc Temp: 57100 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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