[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 14 November 12 issued 2337 UT on 14 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 15 10:37:26 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 NOVEMBER - 17 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 14/0404UT Possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Nov: 142/96
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Nov 16 Nov 17 Nov
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Moderate over the last 24 hours due
to an M1 X-ray flare produced by active region 1613 (S23E17) at
14/0404UT. Several C-class flares were observed during this period
as well from active regions 1613 and 1614(N16E32). Expect Low
to Moderate activity over the UT day, 15 November. SOHO C2 imagery
showed CMEs on the east and west limbs during the UT day, although
they are not expected to be geoeffective. Note, active region
1598 (S11) is due to return. This region produced M and X class
flares last transit. ACE spacecraft observed a solar wind speed
ranging between 370 and 480km/s over the last 24 hours with a
noted increase in density associated with arrival of CMEs occurring
on 9 and 10 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Nov: Quiet to Minor Storm
Estimated Indices 14 Nov : A K
Australian Region 17 34444112
Cocos Island 12 333330--
Darwin 15 44433112
Townsville 18 34444222
Learmonth 22 54534212
Alice Springs 15 34434112
Norfolk Island 15 34443112
Culgoora 21 35544111
Gnangara 17 44434212
Camden 21 35544111
Canberra 14 34443101
Hobart 16 36654101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Nov :
Macquarie Island 41 45666301
Mawson 36 66553311
Davis 36 66454322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 23
Planetary 34
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 16 4322 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
16 Nov 6 Quiet
17 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions ranged from Minor Storm to Quiet
levels over the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Major Storm
levels at High latitudes (Hobart). The majority of storm activity
occurred in the first half of the UT day, 14 November. Storm
activity was associated with a prolonged southward Bz component
of the interplanetary magnetic field peaking near -20nT at 14/0251UT,
resulting in reconnection with the Earth's magnetic field. Geomagnetic
activity has decrease and is expected to remain Unsettled to
Quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Nov 95
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Depressed by 35% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values in the northern
region of Australia and depressed in the southern and Antarctic
regions over the last 24 hours due to a geomagnetic storm associated
with a prolonged southerly Bz component of the interplanetary
magnetic field. Similar conditions are expected today, 15 November,
with a possibility of depressions in the mid Australian region
as well. Expect a return to monthly predicted values over all
the Australian region on 16-17 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.40E+05 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Nov
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 3.6 p/cc Temp: 100000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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