[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 15 November 12 issued 2326 UT on 15 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 16 10:26:31 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 NOVEMBER - 18 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Nov: 141/95
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Nov 17 Nov 18 Nov
Activity Low Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts None expected Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. The largest
flare was a C6 class x-ray flare from active region 1610 (S21W51)
at 15/0437UT. C-class flares were also observed from active regions
1613 (S23E05) and 1615 (N09E06). Expect Low activity over the
UT day, 16 November with a slight chance of an M-class flare.
Note, active region 1598 (S11) is due to return. This region
produced M and X class flares last transit. ACE spacecraft observed
a solar wind speed decreasing from 480 to 400km/s over the last
24 hours. The Bz component of the IMF ranged between +3/-2nT
during this period. Expect the solar wind to remain between 400
to 300km/s over the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11011112
Darwin 3 11011112
Townsville 5 12112122
Learmonth 4 21021112
Alice Springs 2 21020011
Norfolk Island 3 11101112
Culgoora 2 21010012
Gnangara 3 11121111
Camden 1 11010011
Canberra 0 10000001
Hobart 1 11010001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10010001
Mawson 18 33122136
Davis 11 22233233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 21
Planetary 31 5654 4201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Nov 5 Quiet
17 Nov 5 Quiet
18 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions have returned to Quiet levels
over the last 24 hours. Geomagnetic activity is expected to remain
Quiet for the next three days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
17 Nov Normal Normal Normal
18 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Nov 53
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 35% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
17 Nov 90 Near predicted monthly values
18 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed during the local day, 15 November,
due to a geomagnetic storm, however, were returning to normal
levels during the local night. Expect a return to monthly predicted
values over the Australian region on 16-18 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Nov
Speed: 404 km/sec Density: 4.5 p/cc Temp: 202000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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