[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 13 November 12 issued 2338 UT on 13 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 14 10:38:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 14 NOVEMBER - 16 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Nov: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.0 12/2328UT possible lower West Pacific
M6.0 0204UT probable lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.5 0550UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M2.8 2054UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Nov: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Nov 15 Nov 16 Nov
Activity Moderate to high Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Probable Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity was High over the last 24 hours due to
M6 X-ray flare produced by active region 1613 (S23E30). The flare
had associated type II sweep and CME, however the CME is not expected
to be geoeffective. Two additional M-class flares were observed
by GOES X-ray flux detector during the period from this region.
Active region 1610 (S22W23), 1611 (N15W00), and 1613 all have
complex magnetic fields and may produce C and/or M class flares
during the UT day, 14 November. ACE spacecraft observed a solar
wind speed ranging from 380 to 500km/s over the last 24 hours
and the IMF Bz component oscillated between +/- 20nT, although
mainly northward. Over the last several hours however Bz as turned
southward and is currently less than -10nT. Presently the solar
wind speed remains steady at approximately 380km/s.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 13 Nov : A K
Australian Region 16 43343322
Cocos Island 12 33333311
Darwin 21 54343323
Townsville 16 43343322
Learmonth 23 54353332
Alice Springs 19 53343332
Norfolk Island 11 33332222
Culgoora 16 43343322
Gnangara 19 53343332
Camden 16 43343322
Canberra 12 43332222
Hobart 17 53342322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Nov :
Macquarie Island 11 43223311
Mawson 29 55343452
Davis 26 55443432
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 2 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 39 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 16
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1000 0123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Nov 25 Active
15 Nov 12 Unsettled
16 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were Active to Quiet over the
last 24 hours with isolated cases of Minor Storm levels early
in the UT day, 13 November. Activity decreased during the UT
day due to a mostly northward Bz. Short lived Minor Storm and
Active periods occurred when IMF Bz component dipped southward.
Expect periods of increased activity early in the UT day, 14
November due to the current prolonged southerly Bz observed by
ACE. 15-16 November should see a gradual return to Quiet to Unsettled
levels with isolated cases of Active levels. In the IPS magnetometer
data for 13 Nov, a weak (12nT) impulse was observed at 0416UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
16 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Nov 110
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Nov 80 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
16 Nov 100 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted values with minor depressions
in the Antarctic region over the last 24 hours. MUF depressions
are expected today due geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Nov
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 42400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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