[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 November 12 issued 2345 UT on 12 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Nov 13 10:45:23 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 13 NOVEMBER - 15 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Nov: 144/98
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Nov 14 Nov 15 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 145/99 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the last 24 hours. Active
region 1610 produced three C-class flares and Active regions
1613 and 1614 each produced a C-class flare during this period.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days, although
there is a slight chance that AR 1610 will produce an M-class
flare. The solar wind speed ranged between just under 300km/s
to near 350km/s during the UT day. A solar wind shock was observed
by the ACE spacecraft at approximately 2230UT with the solar
wind speed rising from approximately 310 to 360km/s due to the
arrival of an expected CME occurring on 10 November. This was
preceded by a more gradual rise approximately 8 hours early,
most likely due to the 9 Nov CME arrival. The IMF dipped to approximately
-18nT at 2230UT, 12 Nov.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21110122
Cocos Island 1 1-010011
Darwin 2 2000012-
Townsville 6 22111223
Learmonth 4 2111----
Norfolk Island 3 20100113
Culgoora 1 1100----
Gnangara 3 21110022
Camden 2 1110012-
Canberra 7 ---30113
Hobart 2 1110011-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 ----1111
Mawson 10 22201244
Davis 10 23322223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 3 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0000 2111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Nov 40 Minor Storm
14 Nov 25 Active
15 Nov 12 Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 12-13 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were mostly
Quiet over the last 24 hours with isolated cases of Active levels
at higher latitudes. Expect an increase in activity near the
end of the UT day, 12 Nov, due to the arrival of CMEs observed
on 9-10 Nov. As a result, minor storm conditions are expected
today, 13 Nov, particularly at higher latitudes. 14-15 Nov should
see a gradual return to Quiet to Unsettled levels with isolated
cases of Active levels. Note some K indices from 12 Nov are missing
due to a backup of data, this data will be made available in
the near future.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Nov Fair Fair-poor Poor
14 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
15 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are likely to be adversely
affected on 13-14 Nov due to expected CME arrival.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Nov 101
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Nov 60 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
14 Nov 50 Depressed 10 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
15 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 12-13 Nov. MUFs were near monthly predicted
values to mildly enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUF depressions
are likely from late 13-14 Nov due to expected CME effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Nov
Speed: 288 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 23700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list