[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 November 12 issued 2333 UT on 11 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 12 10:33:33 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 12 NOVEMBER - 14 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 0238UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Nov: 133/87
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
12 Nov 13 Nov 14 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 140/94 145/99
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with an M1 flare at 11/0233 from active region 1614 (N16E73).
A large filament erupted from the southwest limb around 10/2200.
An associated CME does not appear to be Earth-directed. Solar
activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days, with the
chance of M-class events. The solar wind speed was steady at
~~290km/s for much of the UT day before stepping up to ~340km/s
at ~17UT, at which level it has remained. A speed and density
increase is likely mid 12-Nov with expected CME arrival. The
IMF Bz component fluctuated during the day between +/-5nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 11 Nov : A K
Australian Region 4 21112111
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 5 22222210
Learmonth 5 2112311-
Alice Springs 3 21112101
Norfolk Island 2 20102101
Culgoora 3 111121--
Gnangara 4 21112111
Canberra 1 10102000
Hobart 2 11102100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 00002---
Mawson 6 33112200
Davis 7 22223211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 1
Planetary 2 0000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
12 Nov 40 Minor Storm
13 Nov 25 Active
14 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 12-13 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions were quite
over the last 24 hours. A CME observed 09/1454 is expected to
arrive midway through 12-Nov while the CME from 10/0539 could
deliver a glancing blow on 13-Nov. As a result, minor storm conditions
are expected later on 12-Nov with active periods on 13-Nov. Storm
level conditions on both days are expected in Antarctica. 14-Nov
should see a return to quiet levels with some unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Nov Fair Fair-normal Poor
13 Nov Fair Fair Fair-poor
14 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are likely to be adversely
affected on 12-13 Nov due to expected CME arrival.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
11 Nov 99
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
No data available during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
12 Nov 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
13 Nov 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
14 Nov 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 43 was issued on 10 November
and is current for 12-13 Nov. MUFs were near monthly predicted
values to mildly enhanced over the last 24 hours. MUF depressions
are likely from late 12-Nov due to expected CME effects.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 10 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Nov
Speed: 300 km/sec Density: 1.9 p/cc Temp: 17800 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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