[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 November 12 issued 2330 UT on 07 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Nov 8 10:30:14 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Nov 09 Nov 10 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours.
All active regions on the disk appear stable. A CME first observed
in STEREO-A imagery at 07/0454 is not expected to be geoeffective.
Very low to low solar activity is expected for the next 3 days.
Solar wind speed increased from around 320km/s to 500km/s during
the UT day. IMF Bz was southward to -10nT around 00-02UT and
to -5nT during the period 11-19UT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A K
Australian Region 10 23223223
Darwin 10 32223223
Townsville 13 33223333
Learmonth 12 32224332
Alice Springs 9 22223223
Norfolk Island 8 23222222
Culgoora 10 23223223
Gnangara 12 32223333
Canberra 9 23223222
Hobart 10 23223232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
Macquarie Island 13 22135322
Mawson 49 55324674
Davis 27 34434553
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov :
Darwin 2 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 3 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1011 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Increased solar wind speed and southward IMF Bz resulted
in unsettled periods across the Australian region, with active
and storm periods in Antarctica. Unsettled periods are expected
to continue during 8-Nov, returning to mostly quiet conditions
for 9-10 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal-fair
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Nov 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Nov 50 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Nov 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable conditions were observed in equatorial regions
over the last 24 hours, with mild depressions at low latitudes
and other regions near monthly predicted values. Depressed periods
are expected to continue for the next 3 days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.4E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 296 km/sec Density: 1.5 p/cc Temp: 20600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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