[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 November 12 issued 2333 UT on 08 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 9 10:33:18 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 09 NOVEMBER - 11 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0224UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 Nov: 104/53
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
09 Nov 10 Nov 11 Nov
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 110/60 115/66
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate over the last 24 hours,
with a single M1.7 flare at 08/0223 from active region 1611 (N14
E67). This was accompanied by a type II radio sweep and an east-directed
CME which is not expected to be geoeffective. A full halo CME
observed in STEREO-A imagery at 08/1109 was a back-sided event.
Solar activity is expected to be low for the next 3 days, with
a chance of further M-class flares. The solar wind speed declined
gradually from ~500km/s to ~400km/s. The IMF Bz component had
a northward bias for most of the UT day, from 0 to 4nT.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 08 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21112001
Darwin 5 22122112
Townsville 5 22222111
Learmonth 5 22122111
Alice Springs 3 21112001
Norfolk Island 2 11111002
Culgoora 2 11012001
Gnangara 4 21122111
Canberra 1 11011000
Hobart 2 11112001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 10011000
Mawson 11 32212015
Davis 11 33333112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 4 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 61 (Active)
Canberra 51 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11 2301 3342
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
09 Nov 5 Quiet
10 Nov 5 Quiet
11 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: With more settled solar wind parameters, geomagnetic
conditions have returned to quiet levels across the Australian
region, with some unsettled periods in Antarctica. Conditions
are expected to remain mostly quiet for the next 3 days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal Normal
10 Nov Normal Normal Normal
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
08 Nov 59
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
09 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 42 was issued on 7 November
and is current for 8-9 Nov. Variable conditions were observed
in equatorial regions over the last 24 hours, with MUF depressions
to 20% at times over much of Australia. MUFs are expected to
be near monthly predicted values for the next 3 days, with mild
depressions likely in the Northern Australian region on 9-Nov.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 07 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 Nov
Speed: 444 km/sec Density: 6.5 p/cc Temp: 125000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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