[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 November 12 issued 2329 UT on 06 Nov 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 7 10:29:56 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 NOVEMBER - 09 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Nov:  99/46


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Nov             08 Nov             09 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low over the last 24 hours. 
All active regions on the disk appear stable, though background 
X-ray flux has increase slightly. Low or very low solar activity 
is expected for the next 3 days. Solar wind density and speed 
increased slightly during the UT day, the latter now being ~320km/s. 
The IMF Bz component had a southward bias for much of the day, 
to -3nT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   12111211
      Darwin               8   24112222
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   02112212
      Alice Springs        4   03111211
      Norfolk Island       3   12011111
      Culgoora             2   02001211
      Gnangara             3   02111211
      Canberra             5   33001210
      Hobart               3   02102211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     4   11013300
      Mawson               -   --------
      Davis               10   33222322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        3   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3   0010 1121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Nov     5    Quiet
08 Nov     5    Quiet
09 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet for the last 24 
hours with some isolated unsettled periods most likely due to 
mild but sustained southward IMF Bz. Geomagnetic activity is 
expected to remain mostly quiet over the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Nov    67

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      No data available during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Nov    65    Near predicted monthly values
08 Nov    65    Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some depressions were observed in equatorial regions 
over the last 24 hours, with other regions near monthly predicted 
values. Similar conditions are expected for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Nov
Speed: 300 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    34200 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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