[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 November 12 issued 2331 UT on 03 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 4 10:31:08 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 NOVEMBER - 06 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Nov: 93/38
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Nov 05 Nov 06 Nov
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 95/41 100/48
COMMENT: B-class flare activity was observed during 3 November.
Analysis of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests that recent
CME activity is not earth directed and is not expected to be
geoeffective. The IMF Bz fluctuated between +5 and -5 nT during
3 November with solar wind speeds increasing slightly and presently
around 350 km/s. Solar wind parameters are expected to be predominantly
low values for the next few days. Solar activity is expected
to remain mostly Very Low to Low for the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 03 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Darwin 3 10112112
Townsville 8 2222322-
Learmonth 4 11112211
Alice Springs 5 31112112
Norfolk Island 3 11112111
Culgoora 3 11112111
Gnangara 4 1111221-
Canberra 2 10002101
Hobart 3 01112211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Nov :
Macquarie Island 0 00000200
Mawson 7 21112233
Davis 9 22223322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6 2200 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Nov 6 Quiet
05 Nov 5 Quiet
06 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 3 November. Geomagnetic
activity should be mostly Quiet over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Nov Poor-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
05 Nov Normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions were observed at times during
3 November, particularly for low-equatorial latitudes. Mildly
degraded conditions are expected at times for 4 November, primarily
for low-equatorial latitudes, otherwise mostly normal conditions
are expected elsewhere. Mostly normal conditions are expected
for 5-6 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Nov 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Nov 60 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed for northern Australian regions
for 3 November, otherwise conditions were mostly near predicted
monthly values elsewhere. Mild depressions are expected to persist
for northern regions into 4 November, otherwise conditions are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values elsewhere.
Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected for 5-6 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Nov
Speed: 303 km/sec Density: 2.2 p/cc Temp: 21300 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------
IPS Radio and Space Services email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of IPS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://listserver.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list