[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 November 12 issued 2340 UT on 02 Nov 2012

Sat Nov 3 10:40:17 EST 2012

SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 NOVEMBER - 05 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Nov:  97/44

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 Nov             04 Nov             05 Nov
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: B-class flare activity was observed during 2 November. 
The IMF Bz fluctuated between +5 and -5 nT during 2 November 
with solar wind speeds predominantly around 300 km/s. Solar wind 
parameters are expected to be predominantly low values for the 
next few days. Solar activity is expected to remain mostly Very 
Low to Low for the next few days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 02 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   23211222
      Cocos Island         5   13111121
      Darwin               7   23211222
      Townsville           9   33222222
      Learmonth            7   23211222
      Alice Springs        7   3321121-
      Norfolk Island       6   23111122
      Culgoora             6   13211222
      Gnangara             7   23211222
      Canberra             3   12110111
      Hobart               5   13211112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   12000211
      Mawson              15   33111254
      Davis               11   34222223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             24   3335 4533     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
04 Nov     6    Quiet
05 Nov     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet to Unsettled for the 
Australian region during 2 November, with an isolated Minor Storm 
period at a high latitude station. Geomagnetic activity should 
be mostly Unsettled to Quiet levels over the next few days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 Nov      Normal-poor    Poor-normal    Poor-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Nov      Poor-normal    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
04 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions were observed during 
2 November. Degraded conditions are expected at times during 
3 November. Mostly normal conditions are expected for 4-5 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 Nov    16

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
      Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 35% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed 15-30% at times to near predicted monthly values.

Predicted Monthly T index for November:  81

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 Nov    50    Depressed 10-20% at times for norther regions, 
                otherwise mostly near predicted monthly values 
                elsewhere.
04 Nov    75    Near predicted monthly values
05 Nov    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were significantly depressed for central to southern 
Aus/NZ regions during the local day of 2 November. MUFs have 
been depressed for northern Australian regions since local dawn. 
Depressions are expected to persist for northern regions for 
3 November, otherwise conditions are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values elsewhere. Mostly near predicted monthly 
values are expected for 4-5 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Nov
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    22400 K  Bz:  -8 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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