[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 01 November 12 issued 2353 UT on 01 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 2 10:53:39 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 NOVEMBER - 04 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** RED **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Nov: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Nov 03 Nov 04 Nov
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: B-class flare activity was observed during 1 November.
The IMF had a sustained period of southward polarity during 1
November. Solar wind speeds have declined slowly from 380-310
km/s during 1 November. Solar activity is expected to remain
mostly Very Low to Low for the next few days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Nov: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Nov : A K
Australian Region 14 23343332
Cocos Island 9 03232322
Darwin 13 33242332
Townsville 15 --343332
Learmonth 14 33233333
Alice Springs 14 33243332
Norfolk Island 17 333523-2
Culgoora 15 33343331
Gnangara 14 12243433
Canberra 12 32342321
Hobart 18 33344432
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Nov :
Macquarie Island 65 23477752
Mawson 29 44443553
Davis 18 34432433
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0000 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Nov 12 Unsettled
03 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Nov 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was mostly Unsettled to Active
for the Australian region during 1 November, with isolated Minor
Storm periods observed at some stations. Storm periods were observed
at high latitudes during 1 November. The elevated activity was
in response to a sustained period of southward IMF during 1 November.
Geomagnetic activity should return to mostly Unsettled to Quiet
levels for 2-4 November.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Nov Normal-fair Normal-poor Normal-poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Nov Fair-normal Poor-normal Poor-normal
03 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Significantly degraded conditions have been observed
late in the UT day of 1 November. Significantly degraded conditions
are expected at times during 2 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Nov 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Nov 40 20 to 30% below predicted monthly values
03 Nov 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Nov 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 36 was issued on 31 October
and is current for 1-2 Nov. MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly
values during 1 November with significant depressions observed
late in the UT day. Significant depressions are expected at times
for 2 November. Mild depressions are expected to continue for
3 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Oct
Speed: 301 km/sec Density: 4.2 p/cc Temp: 52400 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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