[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 04 November 12 issued 2347 UT on 04 Nov 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 5 10:47:21 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: *YELLOW*
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 95/41
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Very Low Very Low Very Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 100/48 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low today. No significant flares
were observed. Solar wind speeds predominantly remained below
350 km/s during 4 November with the Bz component of IMF mostly
varying between +/-5 nT. Very Low to Low levels of solar activity
may be expected for the next three days (5 to 7 November). Analysis
of SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery suggests that recent CME
activity is not Earth directed and is not expected to be geoeffective.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11101201
Darwin 2 11201100
Townsville 5 22112211
Learmonth 2 21001200
Alice Springs 2 11001201
Norfolk Island 1 11001101
Culgoora 0 00001100
Gnangara 3 11111211
Canberra 0 00000100
Hobart 2 11101201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 1 11001000
Mawson 7 34102210
Davis 10 33323211
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 0000 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 6 Quiet
06 Nov 5 Quiet
07 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity was Quiet during 4 November. Geomagnetic
activity should be mostly Quiet over the next few days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Poor-normal Fair-normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Fair-normal Normal Normal
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mildly degraded conditions were observed at times during
4 November, particularly for low-equatorial latitudes. Weakly
degraded conditions are expected at times for 5 November, primarily
for low-equatorial latitudes, otherwise mostly normal conditions
are expected elsewhere. Mostly normal conditions are expected
for 6-7 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for November: 81
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 65 Depressed 5 to 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
07 Nov 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were depressed for northern Australian regions
at times for 4 November, otherwise conditions were mostly near
predicted monthly values elsewhere. Weak depressions are expected
to persist for northern regions into 5 November, otherwise conditions
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values elsewhere.
Mostly near predicted monthly values are expected for 6-7 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 1.3 p/cc Temp: 23700 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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