[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 29 May 12 issued 2341 UT on 29 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 30 09:42:01 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 30 MAY - 01 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN   ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 May: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             30 May             31 May             01 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly Very 
Low to Low for 30 May. Solar wind speeds increased slightly over 
the past 24 hours and are presently averaging between 400-450 
km/s.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 29 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   12001111
      Darwin               2   12000112
      Townsville           6   22212212
      Learmonth            3   21000222
      Norfolk Island       2   12000111
      Camden               2   12001111
      Canberra             1   01000011
      Hobart               2   11001111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22111112
      Mawson              24   43100127

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 May : 
      Darwin               4   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            28   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               8   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   1001 1232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
30 May     6    Quiet
31 May     5    Quiet
01 Jun     5    Quiet


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
31 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were Fair to Normal during 29 May. Mildly 
degraded conditions are expected again at times for the next 
couple of days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
29 May    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
30 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
31 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
01 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Fair to Normal during 29 May with 
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations. 
MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with isolated 
depressions of 15-30% observed at times at most locations. Mildly 
degraded conditions are expected again at times for the next 
couple of days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 28 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.0E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 May
Speed: 360 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    36700 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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