[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 30 May 12 issued 2352 UT on 30 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 31 09:52:16 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 31 MAY - 02 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:*YELLOW*   MAG:GREEN   ION:*YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 May: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 May             01 Jun             02 Jun
Activity     Low                Low                Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      Possible
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: A C1-flare was observed from around the east limb during 
30 May. Previously M-flare(s) producing region 1476 is due for 
return to the north-east limb around 31 May. Solar activity may 
increase over the next few days. Solar wind speeds are still 
slightly elevated and are presently around 400-450 km/s. No possible 
geoeffective CMEs were observed during 30 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22122110
      Darwin               5   22222111
      Townsville           7   22322221
      Learmonth            5   22221211
      Norfolk Island       3   2-022110
      Camden               4   22122110
      Canberra             4   21122110
      Hobart               4   21122110    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   10043000
      Casey                8   33322110
      Mawson               9   33312221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            31   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            18   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1201 1123     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 May     5    Quiet
01 Jun     4    Quiet
02 Jun     3    Quiet


-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 May      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal-fair
01 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were Fair to Normal during 30 May. Mildly 
degraded conditions are expected again at times for 31 May primarily 
for equatorial-low latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 May    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with isolated
      depressions of 10-20% at times.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
01 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jun    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were Fair to Normal for northern regions 
during 30 May with mostly Normal conditions observed for central 
and southern regions. Mildly degraded conditions are expected 
again at times for 31 May primarily for northern regions.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 May
Speed: 386 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    92700 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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