[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 28 May 12 issued 2326 UT on 28 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 29 09:26:10 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 29 MAY - 31 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 May: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 May             30 May             31 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day, with no 
major flares or Earthward-directed CMEs. Region AR1490 (S12E06) 
has shown some growth in area and complexity. Expect Low solar 
activity 29 May, with C-class flares possible from regions AR1490 
and AR1492 (S13E42). The Earth is currently in a slow solar wind 
stream (Vsw~350-400km/s). The IMF showed southward orientation 
at moderate magnitude (~5nT) for a large part of the UT day.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 28 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11011211
      Darwin               4   11012221
      Townsville           6   12212222
      Learmonth            5   21112221
      Norfolk Island       2   11011111
      Camden               2   01011211
      Canberra             2   01011210
      Hobart               3   01021211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00020110
      Casey                5   22111221
      Mawson               5   22102222
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 May : 
      Darwin               2   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            13   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               4   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              5   2101 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 May     5    Quiet
30 May     5    Quiet
31 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet over the UT day. Expect 
mostly Quiet conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
31 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 May    63

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
31 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal during 28 May with 
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations. 
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the 
next few days. MUFs showed some localised depressions as the 
ionosphere recovers slower than expected from last weeks mild 
activity. The ionosphere is expected to gradually strengthen 
over the next three days, with MUFs mostly near predicted monthly 
values.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.2E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 May
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    3.8 p/cc  Temp:    44200 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of IPS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.ips.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.





More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list