[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 27 May 12 issued 2326 UT on 27 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 28 09:26:06 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 28 MAY - 30 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 May: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 May             29 May             30 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day. AR1492 (S13E37) 
produced a long-duration C3.1 flare, peaking at 0552UT. Associated 
was an eastward-directed, non-halo CME that is not expected to 
be geoeffective. AR1492 has grown in size, and further C-class 
flares are possible from this region. The 10MeV proton flux reached 
the 10pfu (NOAA S1) event level during the day, after a large 
eruption from AR1482 behind the west limb late on 26-May. The 
solar wind speed remains slow, and the IMF, while consistently 
southward-directed over the UT day, has been of small magnitude.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   12100000
      Darwin               2   22100001
      Townsville           4   12211111
      Learmonth            2   21100001
      Norfolk Island       0   02000000
      Camden               1   12000000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22201111
      Mawson               6   24311000
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   3101 1001     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 May     5    Quiet
29 May     5    Quiet
30 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 27-May. Expect mostly 
Quiet conditions next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 May    62

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 40% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 May    65    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
29 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
30 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal during 27 May with 
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations. 
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the 
next few days. MUFs were depressed overnight at N.Aus/near-equatorial 
locations. MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values next three days, with some further overnight depressions 
likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+08   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.6

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 May
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    2.0 p/cc  Temp:    46900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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