[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 12 issued 2323 UT on 26 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 27 09:23:49 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 110/60
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
27 May 28 May 29 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar activity was low for 26-May, with just some low
C-level flares from AR1492 (S13E58). A SW-directed CME visible
in SOHO and STEREO imagery is not expected to be geoeffective.
Low solar activity is expected 27-May, with just the slight chance
of a M-class flare.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 26 May : A K
Australian Region 1 11110000
Darwin 2 12110001
Townsville 5 22221111
Learmonth 2 21110000
Norfolk Island 1 11110010
Camden 1 11110000
Canberra 1 02100000
Hobart 1 11010000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00030000
Casey 6 33211110
Mawson 11 53322010
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 6 2112 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
27 May 5 Quiet
28 May 5 Quiet
29 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 26-May. Expect mostly
Quiet conditions next three days (27-29 May).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
27 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
28 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
29 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
26 May 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
27 May 70 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
29 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal during 26 May with
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations.
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the
next few days. MUFs were depressed up to 20% overnight at most
locations. MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values next three days, with some further mild overnight depressions
likely.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 25 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 456 km/sec Density: 0.6 p/cc Temp: 104000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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