[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 26 May 12 issued 2323 UT on 26 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 27 09:23:49 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 27 MAY - 29 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 May: 110/60


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 May             28 May             29 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar activity was low for 26-May, with just some low 
C-level flares from AR1492 (S13E58). A SW-directed CME visible 
in SOHO and STEREO imagery is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Low solar activity is expected 27-May, with just the slight chance 
of a M-class flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Darwin               2   12110001
      Townsville           5   22221111
      Learmonth            2   21110000
      Norfolk Island       1   11110010
      Camden               1   11110000
      Canberra             1   02100000
      Hobart               1   11010000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00030000
      Casey                6   33211110
      Mawson              11   53322010
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   2112 2212     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 May     5    Quiet
28 May     5    Quiet
29 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Quiet 26-May. Expect mostly 
Quiet conditions next three days (27-29 May).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
28 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
29 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 May    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
28 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
29 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal during 26 May with 
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations. 
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the 
next few days. MUFs were depressed up to 20% overnight at most 
locations. MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values next three days, with some further mild overnight depressions 
likely.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 May
Speed: 456 km/sec  Density:    0.6 p/cc  Temp:   104000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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