[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 12 issued 2317 UT on 25 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 26 09:17:19 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 May             27 May             28 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, with just some 
low level C-class flares. Solar activity is expected to continue 
at Low levels, with further C-class flare activity possible over 
the next few days. Solar wind speed continued to decline during 
25 May to be near 450km/s at the time of reporting. The IMF remains 
stable, with just minor fluctuations about the ecliptic.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 25 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12132311
      Darwin               7   22132311
      Townsville           9   22232322
      Learmonth            9   22132411
      Norfolk Island       3   11121210
      Camden               6   12132301
      Canberra             4   01032200
      Hobart               5   11132300    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
      Macquarie Island    11   01253300
      Casey                9   33222311
      Mawson              11   22122225
      Davis                -   --------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            11   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary              8   2332 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
27 May     5    Quiet
28 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field should be mostly Quiet for the 
next three days, with just the chance of some Unsettled conditions 
day 1 (26-May).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal-fair    Fair           Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Fair
27 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 May    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 May    75    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
28 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal during 25 May with 
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations. 
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the 
next few days, otherwise conditions should be mostly normal. 
MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 529 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   122000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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