[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 25 May 12 issued 2317 UT on 25 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 26 09:17:19 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 26 MAY - 28 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 May: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 May 27 May 28 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day, with just some
low level C-class flares. Solar activity is expected to continue
at Low levels, with further C-class flare activity possible over
the next few days. Solar wind speed continued to decline during
25 May to be near 450km/s at the time of reporting. The IMF remains
stable, with just minor fluctuations about the ecliptic.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 May : A K
Australian Region 7 12132311
Darwin 7 22132311
Townsville 9 22232322
Learmonth 9 22132411
Norfolk Island 3 11121210
Camden 6 12132301
Canberra 4 01032200
Hobart 5 11132300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 May :
Macquarie Island 11 01253300
Casey 9 33222311
Mawson 11 22122225
Davis - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 11 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A K
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 8 2332 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
27 May 5 Quiet
28 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field should be mostly Quiet for the
next three days, with just the chance of some Unsettled conditions
day 1 (26-May).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 May Normal-fair Fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 May Normal-fair Normal-fair Fair
27 May Normal Normal Normal
28 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 May 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 May 75 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
27 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
28 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal during 25 May with
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations.
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the
next few days, otherwise conditions should be mostly normal.
MUFs expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values next
three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.4
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 May
Speed: 529 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 122000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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