[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 24 May 12 issued 2353 UT on 24 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 25 09:53:18 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 25 MAY - 27 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: *YELLOW*
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 May: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 May             26 May             27 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Several low level C-class flares were observed during 
24 May. Further C-class flare activity is possible for the next 
few days. Solar wind speeds continued to decline during 24 May 
and are presently approximately 500 km/s.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   12222211
      Darwin               6   22222211
      Townsville           5   2221221-
      Learmonth            6   22222211
      Norfolk Island       5   12221112
      Camden               6   12232211
      Canberra             3   11121200
      Hobart               6   12232211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 May :
      Macquarie Island     9   123330--
      Casey                8   3221231-
      Mawson              15   4432232-
      Davis                7   2-------

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 May : 
      Darwin               8   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart              13   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             19   4543 2232     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 May     6    Quiet
26 May     8    Mostly Quiet with the slight chance of Unsettled 
                to Active periods.
27 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity should be mostly Quiet for the 
next few days with the slight chance of Unsettled to Active periods 
during 26 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-poor    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
26 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
27 May      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are expected at times for the 
next few days, otherwise conditions should be mostly normal.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 May    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
26 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
27 May    70    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal during 24 May with 
mildly degraded conditions observed at times at most locations. 
Mildly degraded conditions are expected again at times for the 
next few days, otherwise conditions should be mostly normal.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 May
Speed: 615 km/sec  Density:    0.5 p/cc  Temp:   168000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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