[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 12 issued 2326 UT on 23 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 24 09:27:01 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
24 May 25 May 26 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day with no significant
flares, and no Earthward-directed CMEs. Solar activity is expected
to be at Low levels, with C-class flares possible from AR1484
(N11W58) and AR1488 (N12E45). An expected high speed coronal
hole wind stream arrived at Earth early in the UT day, raising
the solar wind speed to ~650km/s by 05UT, before slowly declining.
The strong total magnetic field and +/-10nT IMF Bz fluctuations
present all of yesterday subsided early in the UT day. The solar
wind speed is expected to steadily decline over the next 3 days,
as we pass through the high speed stream.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Unsettled, Active at
high latitudes
Estimated Indices 23 May : A K
Australian Region 9 33321221
Darwin 10 33421221
Townsville 15 344222--
Learmonth 9 33321221
Norfolk Island 9 33331121
Camden 10 33331221
Canberra 7 23321120
Hobart 11 33332222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
Macquarie Island 16 344410--
Casey 11 343211--
Mawson 33 456431--
Davis 34 34343663
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 77 (Active)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 63 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A K
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 18 3422 3443
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
24 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
25 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
26 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Unsettled over the UT day,
with isolated Active periods, mostly at high latitudes. The activity
was due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream. The ongoing
elevated solar wind speed is expected to produce Quiet-Unsettled
geomagnetic conditions day 1 (24 May), with continuing isolated
Active periods at high latitudes. A return to mostly Quiet conditions
is expected by day 2 (25-May).
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 May Normal Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
25 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
23 May 90
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
24 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
25 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
26 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: HF conditions were normal at N.Aus/near-equatorial regions,
slightly degraded in S.Aus/NZ and poor in the Antarctic regions
over the UT day. MUFs remained mostly near predicted monthly
values in Aus/NZ/near-equatorial regions, with just some isolated
depressions overnight in N.Aus. The Antarctic regions saw degraded
HF conditions and depressed MUFs as a result of localised activity.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
for the next three days, although some ongoing MUF depressions
are likely in S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions day 1 (24 May). Minor
degradation of HF conditions may also be experienced in these
regions.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 22 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 400 km/sec Density: 2.3 p/cc Temp: 149000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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