[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 23 May 12 issued 2326 UT on 23 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 24 09:27:01 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 24 MAY - 26 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 May: 117/69


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 May             25 May             26 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was Low over the UT day with no significant 
flares, and no Earthward-directed CMEs. Solar activity is expected 
to be at Low levels, with C-class flares possible from AR1484 
(N11W58) and AR1488 (N12E45). An expected high speed coronal 
hole wind stream arrived at Earth early in the UT day, raising 
the solar wind speed to ~650km/s by 05UT, before slowly declining. 
The strong total magnetic field and +/-10nT IMF Bz fluctuations 
present all of yesterday subsided early in the UT day. The solar 
wind speed is expected to steadily decline over the next 3 days, 
as we pass through the high speed stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 May: Quiet to Unsettled, Active at
high latitudes

Estimated Indices 23 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   33321221
      Darwin              10   33421221
      Townsville          15   344222--
      Learmonth            9   33321221
      Norfolk Island       9   33331121
      Camden              10   33331221
      Canberra             7   23321120
      Hobart              11   33332222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 May :
      Macquarie Island    16   344410--
      Casey               11   343211--
      Mawson              33   456431--
      Davis               34   34343663

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            77   (Active)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart              63   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             18                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             18   3422 3443     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
25 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
26 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was Unsettled over the UT day, 
with isolated Active periods, mostly at high latitudes. The activity 
was due to a high speed coronal hole wind stream. The ongoing 
elevated solar wind speed is expected to produce Quiet-Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions day 1 (24 May), with continuing isolated 
Active periods at high latitudes. A return to mostly Quiet conditions 
is expected by day 2 (25-May).

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
26 May      Normal         Normal         Normal


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 May    90

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 25% over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
25 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
26 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal at N.Aus/near-equatorial regions, 
slightly degraded in S.Aus/NZ and poor in the Antarctic regions 
over the UT day. MUFs remained mostly near predicted monthly 
values in Aus/NZ/near-equatorial regions, with just some isolated 
depressions overnight in N.Aus. The Antarctic regions saw degraded 
HF conditions and depressed MUFs as a result of localised activity. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next three days, although some ongoing MUF depressions 
are likely in S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions day 1 (24 May). Minor 
degradation of HF conditions may also be experienced in these 
regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.80E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.0

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 May
Speed: 400 km/sec  Density:    2.3 p/cc  Temp:   149000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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