[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 22 May 12 issued 2324 UT on 22 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 23 09:24:45 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 23 MAY - 25 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 May: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 May             24 May             25 May
Activity     Very Low           Very Low           Very Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             115/66

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day with no 
significant flares. A filament eruption in the SW quadrant produced 
a narrow, slow, and relatively weak CME. STEREO imagery indicates 
the CME is concentrated well south of the ecliptic. This CME 
is expected to produce only minor, if any, disturbance at Earth 
in 3-4 days time. The current spot groups are not particularly 
active, and solar activity is expected to be at Very Low levels 
over the next 3 days. Following the solar wind shock late on 
the 21 May, the post shock flow contained moderate fluctuations 
of the IMF about the ecliptic (+/-10nT) and the solar wind speed 
was moderate (400-420 km/s). Solar wind speed is expected to 
increase today (23-May) as a coronal hole moves into geoeffective 
position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 May: Unsettled, with isolated Active
periods

Estimated Indices 22 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   24222343
      Darwin              17   35222343
      Townsville          19   35233343
      Learmonth           19   35233343
      Norfolk Island      11   24232232
      Camden              14   24222343
      Canberra            10   24122232
      Hobart              14   24223342    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 May :
      Macquarie Island    26   13355542
      Casey               13   34222242
      Mawson              35   25333374
      Davis               22   25343352

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           5   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            10   (Quiet)
      Canberra             9   (Quiet)
      Hobart               3   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1000 1242     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 May    15    Unsettled, with isolated Active periods
24 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Unsettled over the 
UT day, with isolated Active periods 0300-0600UT and 1800-2100UT. 
The activity was due to some moderate IMF fluctuations in the 
post-interplanetary shock flow of the solar wind. The arrival 
of a high speed coronal hole wind stream is expected to produce 
mostly Unsettled geomagnetic conditions day 1 (23 May), with 
isolated Active periods, particularly at high latitudes. A return 
to mostly Quiet conditions is expected by day 2 (24-May).

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 May    82

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 May    90    Near predicted monthly values
24 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
25 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal over the UT day, with MUFs 
mostly near predicted monthly values during the day, and up to 
15% depressed over night in N Aus and near equatorial locations. 
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
for the next three days, although some minor MUF depressions 
are likely in S.Aus/NZ/Antarctic regions days 2 and 3 (24-25 
May). Minor degradation of HF conditions may also be experienced 
in these regions.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.0E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 May
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    0.7 p/cc  Temp:    54800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
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