[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 21 May 12 issued 2322 UT on 21 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 22 09:22:21 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 125/78


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             22 May             23 May             24 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   125/78             125/78             120/72

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low over the UT day with no 
significant flares, or Earthward-directed CMEs. Solar activity 
is expected to be at Low levels over the next 3 days. A moderate 
shock was observed in the solar wind at 21/1843UT, likely the 
arrival of the CME from 18-May. Other than the initial shock, 
the resultant solar wind/IMF disturbance was relatively minor. 
Solar wind speed is expected to increase on day 2 (23-May) as 
a coronal hole moves into geoeffective position.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet, Unsettled after 1930UT

Estimated Indices 21 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11000021
      Darwin               3   11000032
      Townsville           5   12111132
      Learmonth            4   11110032
      Norfolk Island       2   11000021
      Camden               1   00000021
      Canberra             0   00000020
      Hobart               0   01000010    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000010
      Casey                3   12110022
      Mawson               6   12100034
      Davis                5   22221112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth           NA
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             11   3431 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
22 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 May    12    Unsettled
24 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet until 21/1930UT, 
when the arrival of an interplanetary shock produced mostly Unsettled 
geomagnetic conditions, with isolated Active periods. The geomagnetic 
field is expected to be mostly Quiet day 1 (22-May), with Unsettled 
conditions days 2-3 (23-24 May) due to the arrival of a coronal 
hole high speed solar wind stream.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
21 May    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
22 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
23 May    85    Near predicted monthly values
24 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions were normal over the UT day, with MUFs 
mostly near predicted monthly values during the day, and up to 
25% depressed over night, particularly in N Aus and near equatorial 
locations. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the 
next three days. Some minor MUF depressions and degradation of 
HF conditions are possible days 2 and 3 (23-24 May) with S Aus 
/ NZ / Antarctic regions most likely to be affected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 20 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.5E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 399 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   100000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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