[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 12 issued 2349 UT on 20 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 21 09:49:10 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
21 May 22 May 23 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 135/89
COMMENT: Only B class X-ray events were observed today. C class
flares are possible over the forecast period. A weak shock was
observed in the solar wind parameters at around 0130UT. This
is possibly due to the CME observed on the 17th of May. Following
shock arrival, the wind speed rose to 480Km/s, the IMF Bz fluctuated
between +/- 5nT with relatively long sustained southward periods
between 02-15 UT. Since the earlier shock, solar wind speed has
declined gradually and is now ~350km/s. Solar wind speed is expected
to remain around current levels day one, may become slightly
elevated day 2 of the forecast period with the possible effects
of the CME of May 18.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 20 May : A K
Australian Region 7 33212111
Darwin 7 33222111
Townsville 10 33322222
Learmonth 9 33323111
Norfolk Island 6 33212110
Camden 7 33212111
Canberra 4 23212000
Hobart 7 33213100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
Macquarie Island 10 24314100
Casey 10 33333111
Mawson 27 36621114
Davis 14 33532212
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 4 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 16 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
21 May 7 Quiet
22 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Moderate southward IMF Bz during the early part of the
UT day resulted in Unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region. Conditions were generally Quiet over the later part of
the UT day. Isolated Storm periods were observed in the first
part of the UT day at Antarctic stations. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days
with Unsettled levels possible for 22 May due to a glancing blow
from the CME observed May 18. Isolated Active to minor Storm
levels may be observed at high latitudes during 22 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
22 May Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the
next 3days with some possibility of periods of minor MUF depressions
on high and some mid latitude locations on 22 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
20 May 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
21 May 80 Near predicted monthly values
22 May 70 About 15% below predicted monthly values
23 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today on most
locations with isolated periods of minor enhancements at low
latitudes. Sporadic E and Spread F conditions were observed at
times during 20 May wich may have degraded HF conditions. Mostly
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days
with some possibility of minor degradations on 22 May, S Aus
/ NZ / Antarctic regions most likely to be affected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 19 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.6E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 395 km/sec Density: 2.6 p/cc Temp: 67500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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