[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 20 May 12 issued 2349 UT on 20 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 21 09:49:10 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 21 MAY - 23 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 May: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 May             22 May             23 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             135/89

COMMENT: Only B class X-ray events were observed today. C class 
flares are possible over the forecast period. A weak shock was 
observed in the solar wind parameters at around 0130UT. This 
is possibly due to the CME observed on the 17th of May. Following 
shock arrival, the wind speed rose to 480Km/s, the IMF Bz fluctuated 
between +/- 5nT with relatively long sustained southward periods 
between 02-15 UT. Since the earlier shock, solar wind speed has 
declined gradually and is now ~350km/s. Solar wind speed is expected 
to remain around current levels day one, may become slightly 
elevated day 2 of the forecast period with the possible effects 
of the CME of May 18.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 20 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   33212111
      Darwin               7   33222111
      Townsville          10   33322222
      Learmonth            9   33323111
      Norfolk Island       6   33212110
      Camden               7   33212111
      Canberra             4   23212000
      Hobart               7   33213100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 May :
      Macquarie Island    10   24314100
      Casey               10   33333111
      Mawson              27   36621114
      Davis               14   33532212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           4   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            16   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               5   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2101 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 May     7    Quiet
22 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
23 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Moderate southward IMF Bz during the early part of the 
UT day resulted in Unsettled geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region. Conditions were generally Quiet over the later part of 
the UT day. Isolated Storm periods were observed in the first 
part of the UT day at Antarctic stations. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days 
with Unsettled levels possible for 22 May due to a glancing blow 
from the CME observed May 18. Isolated Active to minor Storm 
levels may be observed at high latitudes during 22 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
23 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 3days with some possibility of periods of minor MUF depressions 
on high and some mid latitude locations on 22 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 May    77

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
22 May    70    About 15% below predicted monthly values
23 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today on most 
locations with isolated periods of minor enhancements at low 
latitudes. Sporadic E and Spread F conditions were observed at 
times during 20 May wich may have degraded HF conditions. Mostly 
normal HF conditions may be expected for the next three days 
with some possibility of minor degradations on 22 May, S Aus 
/ NZ / Antarctic regions most likely to be affected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.3E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  2.6E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 May
Speed: 395 km/sec  Density:    2.6 p/cc  Temp:    67500 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.ips.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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