[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 19 May 12 issued 2348 UT on 19 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 20 09:48:12 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 20 MAY - 22 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 May: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 May             21 May             22 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Region 1476 produced a C2 event peaking at 2359UT/18 
may. Region 1479(N15W39) produced a low level C1 flare at 0123UT. 
This region and region 1482 grew during the reporting period 
and may produce C-class events and isolated M-class flares next 
few days. All other regions currently on the disc are decaying 
or stable. Further LASCO and STEREO imagery data is now available 
for analysis and suggests a possible weak earth impact from the 
CME associated with the filament eruption after 05UT/18 May. 
The greater than 10MeV proton event that began 17 May ended. 
LASCO C2 images show a CME after 1248UT. STEREO images indicate 
it is a far side event and is not expected to be geoeffective. 
Solar wind speed diminished from 420-360Km/s. The IMF Bz showed 
minor fluctuations to +/-4 nT with a slight southward bias between 
13-16UT. Solar wind speed is expected to remain around current 
levels days one and two, may become slightly elevated day 3 of 
the forecast period with the possible effects of the CME of May 
18.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111111
      Darwin               4   22111112
      Townsville           7   22222222
      Learmonth            4   21-22111
      Norfolk Island       3   12111111
      Camden               3   12111111
      Canberra             0   11000000
      Hobart               1   11011001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   11022000
      Casey                8   33321112
      Mawson              13   43321224
      Davis               10   33332221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            12   (Quiet)
      Canberra             7   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   3112 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 May     7    Quiet
21 May     7    Quiet
22 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet. Mostly Quiet 
to Unsettled at Antarctic stations. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be predominantly Quiet over the next few days with Unsettled 
levels possible for 22 May due to a glancing blow from the CME 
observed May 18. Isolated Active to minor Storm levels may be 
observed at high latitudes during 22 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the 
next 2 days with some possibility of periods of minor MUF depressions 
on high and some mid latitude locations on 22 May.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 May    76

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
21 May    80    Near predicted monthly values
22 May    70    About 15% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions were observed today on most 
locations with isolated periods of minor enhancements at low 
latitudes. Mostly normal HF conditions may be expected for the 
next three days with some possibility of minor degradations on 
22 May, S Aus / NZ / Antarctic regions most likely to be affected.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.0E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 May
Speed: 410 km/sec  Density:    4.0 p/cc  Temp:   129000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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