[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 18 May 12 issued 2346 UT on 18 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 19 09:46:25 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 19 MAY - 21 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 May: 132/86


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             19 May             20 May             21 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             130/84

COMMENT: Region 1476 produced a C3 event from beyond the west 
limb peaking at 0823UT. Regions 1482 and 1484 are still evolving, 
have a beta magnetic configuration, with the potential to produce 
isolated M-class flares. Other regions on the disc seems mostly 
stable. The greater than 10MeV proton flux which began 17 May 
is in decline. A filament eruption in the vicinity of region 
1482 and associated CME were observed in SDO and STEREO images 
at ~05UT. There is a gap in SOHO/LASCO and STEREO A/B data. On 
presently available data and the position of the active region, 
a glancing blow from this CME is possible. The predicted arrival 
of a weak shock from the M5 flare of May 17 has not yet eventuated. 
The solar wind speed ranged between 380-440 km/s. There was a 
sustained period of southward IMF Bz from 08UT to 14UT, otherwise 
Bz was mostly neutral with fluctuations to +/-5nT. Solar wind 
speeds may become slightly elevated with the possible glancing 
CME impact day one of the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 18 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22121211
      Darwin               7   32121222
      Townsville           9   32222322
      Learmonth            8   32122322
      Norfolk Island       4   22111211
      Camden               5   22121211
      Canberra             2   11010210
      Hobart               5   22121211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 May :
      Macquarie Island     3   10022211
      Casey               14   43432222
      Mawson              22   54223335
      Davis               18   45333322

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            14   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   2110 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
19 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
20 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
21 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with 
isolated Unsettled periods. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled at Antarctic 
stations with isolated active to minor storm levels. Geomagnetic 
activity is expected to be Quiet to Unsettled days one and two 
due to a possible glancing blow from the CME observed May 17. 
Conditions should decline to Quiet day 3.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
21 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes next 3 
days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
18 May    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 40% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
19 May    70    About 15% below predicted monthly values
20 May    70    About 15% below predicted monthly values
21 May    80    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Blanketing Sporadic E was observed at times in equatorial 
regions. Mostly good propagation conditions were observed in 
the Australian region. Possible disturbed periods next three 
days, S Aus / NZ / Antarctic regions most likely to be affected.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 17 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.6E+06
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 May
Speed: 363 km/sec  Density:    3.1 p/cc  Temp:    21400 K  Bz:   7 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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