[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 17 May 12 issued 2344 UT on 17 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 18 09:44:05 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 18 MAY - 20 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 May:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.1    0147UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 May: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 May             19 May             20 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   135/89             135/89             135/89

COMMENT: A flare reaching the M5 level originating from active 
region 1476 (N12W89) was observed at 0147UT today. Type II and 
type IV radio sweeps were observed in association with the flare. 
The greater than 10MeV proton flux became strongly elevated following 
this event. A CME observed in SOHO and STEREO satellite imagery 
around 14UT on 17 May is primarily directed west, however, there 
is the small chance of a glancing impact from this event late 
day 1 of the forecast period although effects are only expected 
to be slight. Solar wind speed was relatively steady at 340-380 
Km/s. After about 03UT, the IMF Bz turned northward, it maintained 
+5nT for most of the remainder of the UT day. Solar wind speeds 
are expected to be predominantly low for the next few days with 
the small chance that they may become slightly elevated with 
the possible glancing CME impact late day one of the forecast 
period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11101011
      Darwin               4   22110112
      Townsville           6   22212122
      Learmonth            3   21111111
      Norfolk Island       3   13000011
      Camden               1   11001001
      Canberra             0   10000001
      Hobart               1   11000001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                8   33321111
      Mawson               5   32212101
      Davis                9   33322122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9   2111 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
20 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet. Quiet to Unsettled 
at Antarctic stations. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be 
predominantly Quiet. Unsettled possible late day one early day 
2 due to a glancing blow from the CME observed May 17. Conditions 
should decline to Quiet day 3.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
20 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes next 3 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 May    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 May    70    About 15% below predicted monthly values
19 May    70    About 15% below predicted monthly values
20 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: HF conditions in the Australian region were mostly Normal 
over the UT day. Some periods of spread-F were observed at S.Aus 
locations overnight, degrading HF conditions there. Possible 
disturbed periods next three days, S Aus / NZ / Antarctic regions 
most likely to be affected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 May
Speed: 394 km/sec  Density:    5.7 p/cc  Temp:    32500 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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