[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 12 issued 2338 UT on 16 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 17 09:38:10 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 May 18 May 19 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: No Significant X-ray events observed for the past 24
hours. Region 1476(N13W73) is decaying rapidly while regions
1482(N13E10) and 1484(N09E38) grew during the reporting period.
No large or magnetically complex regions are on the disc, activity
is expected to remain at Low levels for the next 3 days. SDO
images show filament eruptions, may be related to two CMEs observed
in LASCO C2 images. STEREO images indicate they are not expected
to be geo-effective. ACE data shows the IMF Bz component was
southward to -5 nT over the last half of the UT day while other
parameters were mostly undisturbed. Solar wind parameters should
be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 16 May : A K
Australian Region 7 22113222
Darwin 7 22213222
Townsville 8 22223222
Learmonth 8 22123223
Norfolk Island 6 22112222
Camden 6 21113222
Canberra 4 11002222
Hobart 7 21103223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
Macquarie Island 5 10103321
Casey 9 23212323
Mawson 22 43322355
Davis 12 23332233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2220 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 May 5 Quiet
18 May 5 Quiet
19 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with
isolated Unsettled periods after 13UT probably due to the negative
trending IMF Bz. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled at Antarctic stations
with isolated active to minor storm levels. Conditions should
be mostly Quiet for the forecast period.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
18 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
19 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next 3 days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 May 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25%, 07-13UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
18 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
19 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Sporadic E and spread F conditions were observed at
times during 16 May wich may have degraded HF conditions. Mostly
normal conditions are expected for the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.9
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed:NA km/sec Density: NA p/cc Temp: NA K Bz: NA nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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