[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 16 May 12 issued 2338 UT on 16 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 17 09:38:10 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 17 MAY - 19 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 May: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 May             18 May             19 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: No Significant X-ray events observed for the past 24 
hours. Region 1476(N13W73) is decaying rapidly while regions 
1482(N13E10) and 1484(N09E38) grew during the reporting period. 
No large or magnetically complex regions are on the disc, activity 
is expected to remain at Low levels for the next 3 days. SDO 
images show filament eruptions, may be related to two CMEs observed 
in LASCO C2 images. STEREO images indicate they are not expected 
to be geo-effective. ACE data shows the IMF Bz component was 
southward to -5 nT over the last half of the UT day while other 
parameters were mostly undisturbed. Solar wind parameters should 
be mostly undisturbed over the forecast period.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 16 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   22113222
      Darwin               7   22213222
      Townsville           8   22223222
      Learmonth            8   22123223
      Norfolk Island       6   22112222
      Camden               6   21113222
      Canberra             4   11002222
      Hobart               7   21103223    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 May :
      Macquarie Island     5   10103321
      Casey                9   23212323
      Mawson              22   43322355
      Davis               12   23332233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2220 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 May     5    Quiet
18 May     5    Quiet
19 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with 
isolated Unsettled periods after 13UT probably due to the negative 
trending IMF Bz. Mostly Quiet to Unsettled at Antarctic stations 
with isolated active to minor storm levels. Conditions should 
be mostly Quiet for the forecast period.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 May    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 25%, 07-13UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
18 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
19 May    75    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Sporadic E and spread F conditions were observed at 
times during 16 May wich may have degraded HF conditions. Mostly 
normal conditions are expected for the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 May
Speed:NA km/sec  Density: NA p/cc  Temp: NA K  Bz: NA nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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