[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 11 May 12 issued 2330 UT on 11 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 12 09:30:20 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 12 MAY - 14 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 May: 136/90


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 May             13 May             14 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was low with only C-class flares observed 
over the UT day. The largest was a C6.1 level flare at 17:31UT. 
Most flare activity originated in AR 1476 (N12W03) which maintains 
its size and magnetic complexity. It maintains potential for 
M- to X-class activity. Solar wind speed declined from 650 to 
550 km/s over the UT day. There was a sustained period of southward 
IMF Bz from 10/2100 to 11/0200UT. Otherwise Bz was mostly neutral 
with minor fluctuations to +/-4nT.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 11 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   33221221
      Darwin               6   22211222
      Townsville          10   33222322
      Learmonth           10   33222322
      Norfolk Island       7   -3221221
      Camden               8   33221221
      Canberra             6   22221221
      Hobart               8   33222221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 May :
      Macquarie Island     9   33321221
      Casey               22   43312462
      Mawson              33   65422544
      Davis               36   54422663

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            23   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               9   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             13   3322 2234     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: The regional geomagnetic field was mostly Quiet with 
isolated Unsettled periods at some stations 00-03UT. Conditions 
at high latitudes were Unsettled to Active with isolated Minor 
Storm intervals. Expect mostly Quiet conditions at low and mid 
latitudes with isolated Unsettled intervals possible days one 
and two. Isolated Active intervals possible at high latitudes. 
Conditions should decline to generally Quiet by day three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 May    78

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed 30-50% 07-13UT.
      Depressed 20% 14-16UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Darwin spread-F observed local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Hobart, Christchurch no data. 
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
      Extended periods of weak ionospheric support.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
13 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
14 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions mainly local night. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic 
region next one to two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 May
Speed: 611 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   172000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp.ips.gov.au 
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