[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 12 issued 2342 UT on 10 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 11 09:42:50 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May:  High

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M5.7    0418UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.7    2026UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 131/85


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 May             12 May             13 May
Activity     Moderate           Moderate           Moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Active region 1476 (N10E22) produced numerous minor 
B- to C-class X-ray flares throughout the UT day. It produced 
a flare sequence of M5.7 (0418UT), C7.9 (0510UT) and C8.3 (0522UT). 
A weak CME in the ecliptic plane was seen in STEREO imagery probably 
in association with the M5.7 level flare. This is unlikely to 
be significantly geoeffective. The region produced an impulsive 
M1.7 level flare at 2026UT. AR1476 showed growth and reconfiguration 
in the leading spot group over the period and maintains potential 
for M- to X-class flare activity. Solar wind parameters remain 
elevated under the influence of a coronal hole high speed wind 
stream. Solar wind velocity was steady at 600-650 km/s over the 
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF showed minor fluctuations 
to +/-4nT with a slight northward bias until 21UT. After that 
time there was a moderate southward trend which has reached -5nT 
at the time of report issue.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 10 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       9   23222223
      Darwin               8   23222222
      Townsville          11   23322233
      Learmonth           11   33222233
      Norfolk Island       7   23221122
      Camden               8   23222222
      Canberra             7   22220114
      Hobart               9   23232222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
      Macquarie Island    13   33343222
      Casey               14   34332323
      Mawson              46   35532376
      Davis               44   34443467

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            48   (Unsettled)
      Canberra            44   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              49   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             10                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        19
           Planetary             25   4443 4344     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 May    13    Unsettled to Active
12 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
13 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Despite elevated solar wind speeds, the Bz component 
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has remained mostly slightly 
northward, limiting geomagnetic disturbance. The regional field 
was mostly Quiet at low to mid latitudes with isolated Unsettled 
periods early and late in the UT day. Active to Minor Storm conditions 
were observed at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day 
one of the forecast period due to persistence of the coronal 
hole wind stream. Conditions should decline days two to three.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal         Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 May      Normal         Normal         Poor
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 May    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% until local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Darwin depressed 40% 12-18UT.
      Townsville depressed 30-40% 12-15UT.
      Learmonth depressed 40% 11-15UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Spread-F observed local night Sydney, Canberra.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
      Extended periods of poor ionospheric support. 

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
12 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
13 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions mainly local night. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic 
region next two days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 510 km/sec  Density:    3.0 p/cc  Temp:   313000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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