[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 10 May 12 issued 2342 UT on 10 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 11 09:42:50 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M5.7 0418UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.7 2026UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Moderate Moderate Moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Active region 1476 (N10E22) produced numerous minor
B- to C-class X-ray flares throughout the UT day. It produced
a flare sequence of M5.7 (0418UT), C7.9 (0510UT) and C8.3 (0522UT).
A weak CME in the ecliptic plane was seen in STEREO imagery probably
in association with the M5.7 level flare. This is unlikely to
be significantly geoeffective. The region produced an impulsive
M1.7 level flare at 2026UT. AR1476 showed growth and reconfiguration
in the leading spot group over the period and maintains potential
for M- to X-class flare activity. Solar wind parameters remain
elevated under the influence of a coronal hole high speed wind
stream. Solar wind velocity was steady at 600-650 km/s over the
UT day. The Bz component of the IMF showed minor fluctuations
to +/-4nT with a slight northward bias until 21UT. After that
time there was a moderate southward trend which has reached -5nT
at the time of report issue.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 9 23222223
Darwin 8 23222222
Townsville 11 23322233
Learmonth 11 33222233
Norfolk Island 7 23221122
Camden 8 23222222
Canberra 7 22220114
Hobart 9 23232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 13 33343222
Casey 14 34332323
Mawson 46 35532376
Davis 44 34443467
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 48 (Unsettled)
Canberra 44 (Unsettled)
Hobart 49 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25 4443 4344
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 13 Unsettled to Active
12 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
13 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Despite elevated solar wind speeds, the Bz component
of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has remained mostly slightly
northward, limiting geomagnetic disturbance. The regional field
was mostly Quiet at low to mid latitudes with isolated Unsettled
periods early and late in the UT day. Active to Minor Storm conditions
were observed at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day
one of the forecast period due to persistence of the coronal
hole wind stream. Conditions should decline days two to three.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Poor
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20% until local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Darwin depressed 40% 12-18UT.
Townsville depressed 30-40% 12-15UT.
Learmonth depressed 40% 11-15UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F observed local night Sydney, Canberra.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Extended periods of poor ionospheric support.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions mainly local night. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic
region next two days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 3.0 p/cc Temp: 313000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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