[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 12 issued 2335 UT on 09 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 10 09:35:13 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4.7 1232UT possible lower European
M1.8 1409UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M4.1 2105UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 127/80
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 May 11 May 12 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate with impulsive X-ray events
at M4 level at 1232UT and M1 level at 1408UT, both originating
in active region 1476 (N11E23). There was a C9/M4 flare sequence
of undetermined origin(s) at 2052/2105UT. Solar wind speed increased
steadily from 400 to 600 km/s over the UT day under the influence
of a coronal hole high speed stream. The Bz component of the
IMF fluctuated between +/-10nT with periods of sustained southward
bias. This wind stream is expected to continue for day one, gradually
subsiding days two and three. Active region 1476 maintains potential
for further M-class flare activity.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 09 May : A K
Australian Region 14 33333332
Darwin 15 33333333
Townsville 15 33333333
Learmonth 16 33333433
Norfolk Island 10 33322222
Camden 13 23333332
Canberra 10 23223322
Hobart 17 33344332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
Macquarie Island 31 23365543
Casey 19 44433333
Mawson 60 57543566
Davis 49 44442384
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 52 (Unsettled)
Hobart 42 (Unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 21
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1212 2224
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 May 18 Active
11 May 13 Unsettled to Active
12 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is
current for 9-10 May. The regional geomagnetic field was Unsettled
with isolated Active intervals at low to mid latitudes and Active
with isolated Minor Storm intervals at high latitudes. Expect
similar conditions day one due to persistence of the present
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Conditions should decline
days two and three. Due to elevated solar wind speeds, the Earth-directed
CME's observed May 08 are likely to be indistinguishable from
the background solar wind.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 May Normal Normal Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
11 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
12 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 May 80
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed 40% 15-16UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed to 40% 12-14UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Darwin depressed 40% 12-14UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Perth no data after 04UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
11 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic region next two
to three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.5
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 320 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 50600 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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