[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 09 May 12 issued 2335 UT on 09 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 10 09:35:13 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 10 MAY - 12 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M4.7    1232UT  possible   lower  European
  M1.8    1409UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic
  M4.1    2105UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 May: 127/80


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 May             11 May             12 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate with impulsive X-ray events 
at M4 level at 1232UT and M1 level at 1408UT, both originating 
in active region 1476 (N11E23). There was a C9/M4 flare sequence 
of undetermined origin(s) at 2052/2105UT. Solar wind speed increased 
steadily from 400 to 600 km/s over the UT day under the influence 
of a coronal hole high speed stream. The Bz component of the 
IMF fluctuated between +/-10nT with periods of sustained southward 
bias. This wind stream is expected to continue for day one, gradually 
subsiding days two and three. Active region 1476 maintains potential 
for further M-class flare activity.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 09 May : A   K           
   Australian Region      14   33333332
      Darwin              15   33333333
      Townsville          15   33333333
      Learmonth           16   33333433
      Norfolk Island      10   33322222
      Camden              13   23333332
      Canberra            10   23223322
      Hobart              17   33344332    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 May :
      Macquarie Island    31   23365543
      Casey               19   44433333
      Mawson              60   57543566
      Davis               49   44442384

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara            27   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            52   (Unsettled)
      Hobart              42   (Unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A 
           Fredericksburg        17
           Planetary             21                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1212 2224     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 May    18    Active
11 May    13    Unsettled to Active
12 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is 
current for 9-10 May. The regional geomagnetic field was Unsettled 
with isolated Active intervals at low to mid latitudes and Active 
with isolated Minor Storm intervals at high latitudes. Expect 
similar conditions day one due to persistence of the present 
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Conditions should decline 
days two and three. Due to elevated solar wind speeds, the Earth-directed 
CME's observed May 08 are likely to be indistinguishable from 
the background solar wind.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal         Poor           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
12 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 May    80

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed 40% 15-16UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed to 40% 12-14UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
      Darwin depressed 40% 12-14UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Perth no data after 04UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Poor ionospheric support over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
11 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
12 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic region next two 
to three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.5

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 May
Speed: 320 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    50600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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