[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 08 May 12 issued 2337 UT on 08 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed May 9 09:37:03 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/08 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 08 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 09 MAY - 11 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 08 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.4    1308UT  possible   lower  European

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 08 May: 123/76


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             09 May             10 May             11 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Minor C-class flare activity observed throughout the 
UT day. Active region 1476 (N09E34) produced an impulsive M1 
level flare at 1308UT with associated radio burst activity. A 
slow, weak CME was observed in STEREO A and B COR2 imagery after 
1030UT. This event appears Earth-directed but is unlikely to 
cause significant disturbance. Solar wind speed increased over 
the UT day from 300 to 400 km/s. The Bz component of the IMF 
was mostly neutral until 17UT after which it trended strongly 
Southward, reaching -10nT at 22UT before trending North again 
late in the UT day. The phi component of the IMF indicated a 
solar sector boundary crossing between 04-21UT, with fluctuations 
possibly due to onset of the anticipated coronal hole wind stream.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 08 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 08 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22111113
      Darwin               6   22111223
      Townsville           8   22222223
      Learmonth            8   22222223
      Norfolk Island       5   22111113
      Camden               5   12111113
      Canberra             2   11000012
      Hobart               5   12111113    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 08 May :
      Macquarie Island     2   01011002
      Casey                6   12212113
      Mawson              18   03323226
      Davis               11   13322224

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 08 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 08 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 07 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   0101 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
09 May    16    Active
10 May    16    Active
11 May    13    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is 
current for 9-10 May. The regional geomagnetic field was Quiet 
becoming Unsettled 21-24UT due to a negative trending IMF Bz 
component and increasing solar wind speed. Solar wind parameters 
indicate onset of the anticipated coronal hole high speed stream. 
Expect Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic conditions next three days 
with the chance of Active intervals. Minor Storm periods possible 
at high latitudes. There may be additional disturbance day one 
or two due to an anticipated solar wind shock from the CME observed 
May 07.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
11 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods at high latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
08 May    59

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Norfolk Island depressed 20% at times. 
      Sydney, Canberra depressed 20% 03-10UT.
      Perth depressed 20% 05-07 and 10-17UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
09 May    60    Near predicted monthly values
10 May    60    Near predicted monthly values
11 May    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions. Disturbed periods possible Antarctic region next 
three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 07 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.9

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 07 May
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    1.8 p/cc  Temp:    36700 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
-----------------------------------------------------------

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