[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 07 May 12 issued 2330 UT on 07 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue May 8 09:30:19 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 08 MAY - 10 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.9    1433UT  possible   lower  South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 May: 122/75


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 May             09 May             10 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   120/72             120/72             120/72

COMMENT: A number of impulsive C-class flares were produced by 
active region 1476(N10E53) which is the largest spot group on 
the visible solar disk. This region showed some growth in interior 
spots and area. A long-duration flare reaching M1.9 level at 
1431UT was produced by active region 1471 (S19W50). Preliminary 
data indicates a possible Earth directed CME from this event. 
Solar wind speed was relatively steady at 300-340 km/s and the 
Bz component of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field remained moderately 
northward over the UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   01120101
      Darwin               4   12221101
      Townsville           5   12221211
      Learmonth            3   12021101
      Norfolk Island       3   01020003
      Camden               2   01120001
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Hobart               1   01020001    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 May :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   12110001
      Mawson               1   21010000
      Davis                5   22221111

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            3   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1111 2111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 May    16    Active
10 May    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is 
current for 9-10 May. Possible disturbed periods day one due 
to an anticipated solar sector boundary crossing and a weak shock 
from the CME observed May 05. Solar wind parameters may become 
elevated day two as a coronal hole rotates into geoeffective 
position. The coronal hole high speed wind stream effects should 
continue into day three, with a possible further weak shock from 
the CME observed May 07.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
09 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
10 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Possible disturbed periods days two and three at high 
latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 May    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
      Brisbane, Perth mostly depressed 20%. 
      Evening spread-F observed Hobart.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
09 May    60    Near predicted monthly values
10 May    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 5 May 
and is current for 6-8 May (SWFs). Variable enhancements/depressions 
possible Equatorial/N Aus regions. Disturbed periods possible 
Antarctic region next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B5.4

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 May
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    1.0 p/cc  Temp:    53100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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