[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 06 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 7 09:29:16 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0118UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.3 1748UT possible lower South American/Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 117/69
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 May 08 May 09 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: A number of C flares as well as the M-flares from region
1476 (N08E64). Regions 1469 (west limb) and 1470 (S15W39) also
produced a low level C-flare each. Region 1476 is growing, classified
as Fkc with good M-flare potential, while other regions appear
stable. ACE data show the solar wind was undisturbed over the
reporting period. The solar wind is likely to be moderately disturbed
over the forecast period due to CME effects on 7 and 8 May and
coronal hole effects on 9 May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 06 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21121110
Darwin 4 21221011
Townsville 6 22222221
Learmonth 5 22221211
Norfolk Island 2 11121010
Camden 2 11121010
Canberra 0 20000000
Hobart 2 11121000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 5 32221110
Mawson 4 11221012
Davis 7 22322122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 5 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
08 May 8 Quiet to unsettled
09 May 16 Unsettled to active.
COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is
current for 9-10 May. Isolated minor to major storm levels at
high latitudes on 9 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 May Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 May Normal Normal Normal
09 May Normal Normal-fair Fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 May 68
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 35%
13-15 UT. No data 16-19 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed; 20-35%
depressed 08-14 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values with 25-40% depressions,
11-19 UT at Darwin, and depressed to 25% 10-20 UT at
Townsville.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions 20-30%
11-16 UT at Hobart, Learmonth and Perth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values with some depressions to
30% 18-21 UT.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
08 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
09 May 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 5 May
and is current for 6-8 May (SWFs). Depressions to 25% possible
at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.7
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 305 km/sec Density: 1.6 p/cc Temp: 42000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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