[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 06 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 06 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 7 09:29:16 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 07 MAY - 09 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 May:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M1.1    0118UT  possible   lower  West Pacific
  M1.3    1748UT  possible   lower  South American/Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 May: 117/69

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 May             08 May             09 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: A number of C flares as well as the M-flares from region 
1476 (N08E64). Regions 1469 (west limb) and 1470 (S15W39) also 
produced a low level C-flare each. Region 1476 is growing, classified 
as Fkc with good M-flare potential, while other regions appear 
stable. ACE data show the solar wind was undisturbed over the 
reporting period. The solar wind is likely to be moderately disturbed 
over the forecast period due to CME effects on 7 and 8 May and 
coronal hole effects on 9 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21121110
      Darwin               4   21221011
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            5   22221211
      Norfolk Island       2   11121010
      Camden               2   11121010
      Canberra             0   20000000
      Hobart               2   11121000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00021000
      Casey                5   32221110
      Mawson               4   11221012
      Davis                7   22322122

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             5   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 2121     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 May     8    Quiet to unsettled
08 May     8    Quiet to unsettled
09 May    16    Unsettled to active.

COMMENT: IPS Geomagnetic Warning 9 was issued on 6 May and is 
current for 9-10 May. Isolated minor to major storm levels at 
high latitudes on 9 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
08 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 May      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
06 May    68

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 35%
      13-15 UT. No data 16-19 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed; 20-35%
      depressed 08-14 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with 25-40% depressions,
      11-19 UT at Darwin, and depressed to 25% 10-20 UT at
      Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions 20-30%
      11-16 UT at Hobart, Learmonth and Perth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values with some depressions to
      30% 18-21 UT.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
08 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
09 May    60    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 21 was issued on 5 May 
and is current for 6-8 May (SWFs). Depressions to 25% possible 
at times at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.7

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 May
Speed: 305 km/sec  Density:    1.6 p/cc  Temp:    42000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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