[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 12 issued 2340 UT on 12 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 13 09:40:11 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 May 14 May 15 May
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low with only minor C-class flares
observed over the UT day. Active region 1476 (N11W16)produced
a long-duration C3 level flare at 11/2344UT. A possibly associated
filament eruption produced a weak E-hemisphere semi-halo CME
first seen in LASCO C3 imagery after 12/0000UT. STEREO COR2 imagery
shows a narrow potentially Earth-directed CME in the ecliptic
plane. Flare location and imagery suggest a possible weak Earth
impact, with timing yet to be determined. Active region 1476
retains potential for major flare activity. Solar wind parameters
remain elevated due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
Solar wind velocity declined very slightly over the UT day and
is expected to continue to decline over the next 24-48 hours.
The IMF Bz fluctuated +/-4nT with a briefly sustained period
of negative bias during the mid-part of the UT day.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 May : A K
Australian Region 8 22232222
Darwin 7 22222222
Townsville 12 32233233
Learmonth 10 22233232
Norfolk Island 6 21222122
Camden 9 32232222
Canberra 5 21122122
Hobart 8 22232222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
Macquarie Island 9 11243212
Casey 16 33325322
Mawson 43 53433276
Davis 39 43443375
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 5322 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
14 May 5 Quiet
15 May 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain elevated. The regional
geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid latitudes with a period
of Unsettled conditions 09-12UT. Unsettled to Active conditions
observed at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day one
of the forecast period. Solar wind parameters should decline
over the next 24-48 hours bringing generally Quiet conditions
days two and three. A weak CME impact is possible day three causing
briefly Unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 May Normal Normal Poor-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
14 May Normal Normal Normal
15 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 May 74
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced 15% 07, 11-12UT.
Depressed 30% 14-17UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night and after
local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Darwin enhanced 15% 03-05UT. Depressed to 40% 11-17UT.
Learmonth depressed to 40% 12-15UT.
Townsville no data after 02UT.
Otherwise near predicted monthly.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Norfolk Is. no data after 03UT.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
with some periods of disturbance.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 May 75 Near predicted monthly values
14 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
15 May 70 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N
Aus regions mainly local night. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic
region days one and three.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 568 km/sec Density: 0.0 p/cc Temp: 167000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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