[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 12 May 12 issued 2340 UT on 12 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 13 09:40:11 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 13 MAY - 15 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 May: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             13 May             14 May             15 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was low with only minor C-class flares 
observed over the UT day. Active region 1476 (N11W16)produced 
a long-duration C3 level flare at 11/2344UT. A possibly associated 
filament eruption produced a weak E-hemisphere semi-halo CME 
first seen in LASCO C3 imagery after 12/0000UT. STEREO COR2 imagery 
shows a narrow potentially Earth-directed CME in the ecliptic 
plane. Flare location and imagery suggest a possible weak Earth 
impact, with timing yet to be determined. Active region 1476 
retains potential for major flare activity. Solar wind parameters 
remain elevated due to a coronal hole high speed wind stream. 
Solar wind velocity declined very slightly over the UT day and 
is expected to continue to decline over the next 24-48 hours. 
The IMF Bz fluctuated +/-4nT with a briefly sustained period 
of negative bias during the mid-part of the UT day.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 May: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 12 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   22232222
      Darwin               7   22222222
      Townsville          12   32233233
      Learmonth           10   22233232
      Norfolk Island       6   21222122
      Camden               9   32232222
      Canberra             5   21122122
      Hobart               8   22232222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 May :
      Macquarie Island     9   11243212
      Casey               16   33325322
      Mawson              43   53433276
      Davis               39   43443375

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             2   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   5322 1322     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
13 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 May     5    Quiet
15 May     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Solar wind parameters remain elevated. The regional 
geomagnetic field was Quiet at low to mid latitudes with a period 
of Unsettled conditions 09-12UT. Unsettled to Active conditions 
observed at high latitudes. Expect similar conditions day one 
of the forecast period. Solar wind parameters should decline 
over the next 24-48 hours bringing generally Quiet conditions 
days two and three. A weak CME impact is possible day three causing 
briefly Unsettled periods.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 May      Normal         Normal         Poor-fair      

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair


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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
12 May    74

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced 15% 07, 11-12UT.
      Depressed 30% 14-17UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night and after 
      local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Darwin enhanced 15% 03-05UT. Depressed to 40% 11-17UT.
      Learmonth depressed to 40% 12-15UT. 
      Townsville no data after 02UT.
      Otherwise near predicted monthly.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Norfolk Is. no data after 03UT.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day
      with some periods of disturbance.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
13 May    75    Near predicted monthly values
14 May    70    Near predicted monthly values
15 May    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Variable enhancements/depressions possible Equatorial/N 
Aus regions mainly local night. Disturbed periods likely Antarctic 
region days one and three.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 11 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.1

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 May
Speed: 568 km/sec  Density:    0.0 p/cc  Temp:   167000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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IPS Radio and Space Services        email: asfc at ips.gov.au
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