[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 03 May 2012
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 4 09:29:23 EST 2012
SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 114/65
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 May 05 May 06 May
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 115/66
COMMENT: Regions 1469 (S23W49) and 1475 (N05E64) produced low-level
C flares. Region 1470 (S16W02) shows renewed growth while other
regions are mostly stable. SDO images show a CME erupting from
the east limb at ~1400 UT; it is not expected to be geo-effective.
ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed although
there was a small impulse ~0120 UT. Solar wind parameters should
be mostly undisturbed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels first half of reporting period.
Estimated Indices 03 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 6 32122112
Townsville 9 32233122
Learmonth 6 32122112
Norfolk Island 5 22222011
Camden 5 21222111
Canberra 2 21111000
Hobart 6 22232101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
Macquarie Island 8 21343000
Casey 6 32211112
Mawson 20 43332116
Davis 13 43332223
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gnangara 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 1101 1003
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 May 7 Quiet to unsettled
05 May 5 Quiet
06 May 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled at Antarctic stations with isolated
active levels in the first half of the reporting period. Major
storm levels at Mawson 21-2330 UT.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 May Fair-normal Normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 May Normal Normal Normal
05 May Normal Normal Normal
06 May Normal Normal Normal
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 May 73
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
11-17 and 21-23 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depression to 25% 22-23 UT.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 15%
around 05-06 and 13-17 UT.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% 11-16 UT
at Learmonth.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Predicted Monthly T index for May: 79
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
05 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
06 May 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 277 km/sec Density: 0.4 p/cc Temp: 15400 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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