[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 03 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 03 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 4 09:29:23 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 04 MAY - 06 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 May: 114/65

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 May             05 May             06 May
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: Regions 1469 (S23W49) and 1475 (N05E64) produced low-level 
C flares. Region 1470 (S16W02) shows renewed growth while other 
regions are mostly stable. SDO images show a CME erupting from 
the east limb at ~1400 UT; it is not expected to be geo-effective. 
ACE data show the solar wind was mostly undisturbed although 
there was a small impulse ~0120 UT. Solar wind parameters should 
be mostly undisturbed.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 May: Quiet, with isolated
unsettled levels first half of reporting period.

Estimated Indices 03 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222111
      Darwin               6   32122112
      Townsville           9   32233122
      Learmonth            6   32122112
      Norfolk Island       5   22222011
      Camden               5   21222111
      Canberra             2   21111000
      Hobart               6   22232101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 May :
      Macquarie Island     8   21343000
      Casey                6   32211112
      Mawson              20   43332116
      Davis               13   43332223

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   1101 1003     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 May     7    Quiet to unsettled
05 May     5    Quiet
06 May     6    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled at Antarctic stations with isolated 
active levels in the first half of the reporting period. Major 
storm levels at Mawson 21-2330 UT.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Fair-normal    Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
03 May    73

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 25%
      11-17 and 21-23 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depression to 25% 22-23 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 15%
      around 05-06 and 13-17 UT.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30% 11-16 UT
      at Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
05 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
06 May    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:16%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 May
Speed: 277 km/sec  Density:    0.4 p/cc  Temp:    15400 K  Bz:  -3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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