[Ips-dsgr] IPS Daily Report - 02 May 12 issued 2329 UT on 02 May 2012

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu May 3 09:29:14 EST 2012


SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2012 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May: 116/68

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Low to moderate    Low                Low
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   115/66             115/66             115/66

COMMENT: A number of low-level C flares, the largest a C3.2 at 
1139 UT on the west limb associated with a disappearing filament 
and weak CME, observed in SDO images, at ~1009 UT from the northwest 
quadrant. The CME may be slightly geo-effective in four to five 
days. Region 1469 (S23W39) appeared the most active, increasing 
in size and magnetic complexity and contributing to the flare 
count; this region is now considered to have M-flare potential. 
New region, 1474 (N14E71), has also appeared active in SDO images. 
ACE parameters show the solar wind was undisturbed, although 
the north-south IMF component was southward to 5 nT for most 
of the period. The solar wind is expected to be mostly undisturbed 
over the forecast period however, the north-south IMF component 
may be mostly southward 3 May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111011
      Darwin               3   22111011
      Townsville           6   22222112
      Learmonth            3   21012111
      Norfolk Island       2   11011011
      Camden               2   11111011
      Canberra             1   00011001
      Hobart               3   11111012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00021000
      Casey                5   32212110
      Mawson              14   53111134
      Davis               10   42322221

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            4   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gnangara             0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and Space Environment Research Center, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   0000 1222     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May     7    Quiet
04 May     5    Quiet
05 May     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled at Antarctic stations with 
isolated active to minor storm levels, probably due to the extended 
period of mild southward IMF. High latitudes may experience similar 
conditions on 3 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Fair-normal    Fair-normal    Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Chance of short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
02 May    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 40%
      14-20 UT.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depression to 25% 11 UT.
      No data 12-22 UT.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values with depressions to 20%
      05-07 and 19-21 UT at Darwin. Mostly 10-20% depressed
      at Townsville.
   Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.
      Depressions to 25% 12-16 UT at Hobart and Learmonth.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 30% depressed.

Predicted Monthly T index for May:  79

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
04 May    65    Near predicted monthly values
05 May    65    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Depressions to 25% possible at times at all latitudes. 
Chance of short-wave fadeouts.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.2E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:21%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.3

ACE Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 322 km/sec  Density:    0.2 p/cc  Temp:    33900 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
ACE data can be incorrect during strong proton events.
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